Saint-Étienne vs Toulouse – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1
Result
2:3
17/05/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 34
  • Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 2
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaSetanta Sports 2
asiaAsiabeIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 3, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN
azerbaijanAzerbaijanSetanta Sports 2
belgiumBelgiumDAZN 1
brazilBrazilCaze TV
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadabeIN Connect
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaQQ Sports, ZhiBo8
colombiaColombiaDisney+
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
europeEuropeSetanta Sports 2 Baltic
finlandFinlandViaplay
franceFranceDAZN 3, DAZN France
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sport 3, Setanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyDAZN 1 Deutsch
indiaIndiaGXR World
israelIsrael5 LIVE Israel
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports 2
kyrgyzstanKyrgyzstanSetanta Sports 2
mexicoMexicoCaliente TV App, Caliente TV
moldovaMoldovaSetanta Sports 2
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport 2
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandEleven Sports 1
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
tajikistanTajikistanSetanta Sports 2
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect
turkmenistanTurkmenistanSetanta Sports 2
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 13
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomLigue 1 Pass
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, Fanatiz
uzbekistanUzbekistanSetanta Sports 2
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.233.34
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
1817
Shots on target
79
Big Chances
27
Corner Kicks
76
Passes
90% (529/590)84% (373/445)
Yellow Cards
32
Expected Goals (xG)
1.233.34
xG on target (xGOT)
1.553.02
Total shots
1817
Shots on target
79
Shots off target
76
Blocked Shots
42
Shots inside the Box
1115
Shots outside the Box
72
Hit the Woodwork
10
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
27
Corner Kicks
76
Touches in opposition box
2440
Accurate through passes
02
Offsides
04
Free Kicks
710
Passes
90% (529/590)84% (373/445)
Long passes
56% (23/41)50% (27/54)
Passes in final third
81% (160/198)74% (91/123)
Crosses
23% (7/30)43% (6/14)
Expected assists (xA)
1.082.47
Throw-ins
1910
Fouls
107
Tackles
84% (16/19)76% (13/17)
Duels won
5152
Clearances
2038
Interceptions
148
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
65
xGOT faced
3.021.55
Goals prevented
0.02-0.45

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 2)
  • 10', 0 - 1, Kamanzi W. ⚽, Gboho Y. (A),
  • 15', 0 - 2, King J. ⚽, Magri F. (A),
  • 23', Moueffek A. ↓, Bouchouari B. ↑,
  • 30', Wadji I. 🟨,
  • 38', 1 - 2, Tardieu F. ⚽,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Bernauer M. ↓, Batubinsika D. ↑,
  • 58', 1 - 3, Gboho Y. ⚽, King J. (A),
  • 59', King J. ↓, Aboukhlal Z. ↑,
  • 63', 2 - 3, Batubinsika D. ⚽, Davitashvili Z. (A),
  • 69', Wadji I. ↓, Old B. ↑,
  • 70', Davitashvili Z. 🟨,
  • 70', Casseres C. 🟨,
  • 72', Sidibe D. ↓, Messali R. ↑,
  • 83', Cardona I. ↓, N'Guessan D. ↑,
  • 84', Bouchouari B. 🟨,
  • 86', Kamanzi W. ↓, Akdag U. ↑,
  • 86', Magri F. ↓, Babicka S. ↑,
  • 90', Restes G. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Saint-Étienne
44%		Draw
24.1%		Toulouse
31.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
25.2% 25.2% 49.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7% 24.7% 48.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Saint-Étienne's performance.
  • Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toulouse might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-18.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Saint-Étienne that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+16.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Toulouse could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Saint-Étienne - Toulouse Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.14 ↓
    (3.76)    		 3.97 ↑
    (3.76)    		 3.03 ↑
    (1.91)    		 4.9%
    (5.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Saint-Étienne - Toulouse?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • DC - Toulouse (1.68) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Saint-Étienne (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Saint-Étienne (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Saint-Étienne will win (103 of 117 users predict this - 88.03%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 82.15% – 93.91%. The data is statistically significant.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Saint-Étienne will win (54 of 62 users predict this - 87.1%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 66 high ROI users predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 56 - 84.8%). Toulouse (votes: 8 - 12.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 3%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 12).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 3.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • Saint-Étienne might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Boakye A. (Ankle Injury) Stassin L. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Toulouse: Donnum A. (Injury) Nicolaisen R. (Calf Injury) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury) Suazo G. (Injury)
    • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1.2:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Saint-Étienne won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Saint-Étienne - Toulouse were as follows:
    13.12.2024 Toulouse - Saint-Étienne 2:1
    Latest results of Saint-Étienne
    10.05.2025 Reims - Saint-Étienne 0:2 ✺
    03.05.2025 Saint-Étienne - Monaco 1:3 ✺
    26.04.2025 Strasbourg - Saint-Étienne 3:1 ✺
    20.04.2025 Saint-Étienne - Lyon 2:1 ✺
    13.04.2025 Saint-Étienne - Brest 3:3 ✺
    Latest results of Toulouse
    10.05.2025 Toulouse - Lens 1:1 ✺
    03.05.2025 Toulouse - Rennes 2:1 ✺
    27.04.2025 Nantes - Toulouse 0:0 ✺
    20.04.2025 Reims - Toulouse 1:0 ✺
    12.04.2025 Toulouse - Lille 1:2 ✺
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSG24183353:193457
    2Lens24172545:212453
    3Lyon24143739:261345
    4Marseille24134751:331843
    5Lille24124837:31640
    6Rennes24117638:35340
    7Monaco24114940:36437
    8Strasbourg24105940:31935
    9Brest2496932:34-233
    10Lorient2489734:38-433
    11Toulouse2487933:28531
    12Angers24851122:30-829
    13Le Havre24681020:30-1026
    14Paris FC24681028:40-1226
    15Nice24661230:44-1424
    16Auxerre24461419:35-1618
    17Nantes24451522:41-1917
    18Metz24341722:53-3113

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          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
          Relegation ~ Ligue 2

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