Result
2:3 penalties
09/09/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.23 | 4.02 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 20 | 32 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 10% (2/20) | 6.25% (2/32) |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 30 | 18 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 93.75% (30/32) | 90% (18/20) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 0% (0/5) | 16.67% (1/6) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 83.33% (5/6) | 100% (5/5) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 28 | 32 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 46.67 | 53.33 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 1)
- 01:04, Savinainen V. (2 min),
- 08:39, 1 - 0, Alitalo V. (G), Rautiainen T. (A), Paivarinta S. (A2)
- 12:38, Boscq J. (2 min),
- 13:52, 1 - 1, Maatta J. (G), Rafkin R. (A), Yliniemi S. (A2)
- 15:09, Huttunen H. (2 min),
- 15:33, Kangas K. (2 min),
- 19:22, Kukkonen M. (2 min),
- 19:22, Teissala L. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (0 - 0)
- 15:55, Nikkila P. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (1 - 1)
- 02:38, Jokinen M. (2 min),
- 08:59, 2 - 1, Korhonen O. (G), Kukkonen M. (A), Nikkila P. (A2)
- 08:59, (2 min),
- 10:51, (2 min),
- 13:18, 2 - 2, Saarela A. (G), Lauridsen O. (A), Teissala L. (A2)
- Overtime (0 - 0)
- 03:38, Nassen L. (2 min),
- Penalties (1 - 2)
- 1, Kiiskinen J. (Penalty Shot),
- 1, Soderlund T. (Penalty Shot),
- 2, Huttunen H. (Penalty Shot),
- 2, Saarela A. (Penalty Shot),
- 3, Vesalainen K. (Penalty Shot),
- 3, Maatta J. (Penalty Shot),
Chances of winning
HPK
41.6% | Draw
23.5% | TPS
34.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-0.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
HPK - TPS Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.26 ↓
(2.28) |
4 ↓
(4.15) |
2.7 ↑
(2.59) |
6.2%
(6.6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for HPK - TPS?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. TPS (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, HPK won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- HPK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, HPK has had a series of home games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, HPK won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 35:57. (average 1.8:2.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, HPK won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 13:26. (average 1.3:2.6).
How many head-to-head matches has HPK won against TPS?
HPK has won 4 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against HPK?
TPS has won 11 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between HPK - TPS were as follows:
16.08.2025
TPS
-
HPK
2:0
17.01.2025
HPK
-
TPS
1:5
28.12.2024
TPS
-
HPK
4:2
26.10.2024
HPK
-
TPS
2:0
25.09.2024
TPS
-
HPK
6:5
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | TPS Turku | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17:13 | 15 |
| 2 | Kiekko-Espoo | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 21:16 | 14 |
| 3 | Assat | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22:10 | 12 |
| 4 | Tappara | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21:9 | 12 |
| 5 | JYP | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23:14 | 12 |
| 6 | Lukko | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22:19 | 9 |
| 7 | KooKoo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:22 | 8 |
| 8 | KalPa | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:25 | 8 |
| 9 | SaiPa | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19:20 | 7 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12:16 | 7 |
| 11 | Vaasan Sport | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14:15 | 6 |
| 12 | Karpat | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15:18 | 6 |
| 13 | Jukurit | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12:18 | 6 |
| 14 | Hameenlinna | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10:16 | 6 |
| 15 | Ilves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:23 | 5 |
| 16 | IFK Helsinki | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:23 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Liiga (Play Out: )
