Result
3:1
10/02/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.61 | 3.34 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 21 | 24 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 16 | 10 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 14.29% (3/21) | 4.17% (1/24) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 23 | 18 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 95.83% (23/24) | 85.71% (18/21) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 0 | 18 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 20% (1/5) | 0% (0/0) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (0/0) | 80% (4/5) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 23 | 27 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 46 | 54 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (3 - 0)
- 05:15, 1 - 0, Pakkila E. (G), Maatta J. (A), Tuhkala A. (A2)
- 05:34, Sertti L. (2 min),
- 06:35, 2 - 0, Saarela A. (G), Yliniemi S. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)
- 14:17, Wright C. (2 min),
- 19:43, 3 - 0, Pakkila E. (G), Yliniemi S. (A), Lehtonen S. (A2)
- 2nd Period (0 - 1)
- 02:19, Kukkonen M. (2 min),
- 14:32, 3 - 1, Wright C. (G), Hakulinen A. (A), Nikkila P. (A2)
- 3rd Period (0 - 0)
- 00:48, Hakulinen A. (Penalty Shot),
- 16:40, Wright C. (2 min),
Chances of winning
TPS
34.7% | Draw
25.7% | HPK
39.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)HPK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPK than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
TPS - HPK Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.7 ↑
(2.55) |
3.6
(3.6) |
2.35 ↓
(2.5) |
7.6%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 4.50
What is the prediction for TPS - HPK?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. TPS (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:3.
Preview Facts
- The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 13 and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 4.
- TPS is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- HPK has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- TPS may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, TPS has had a series of away games.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 59:38. (average 3:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 31:22. (average 3.1:2.2).
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against HPK?
TPS has won 13 of their last 18 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has HPK won against TPS?
HPK has won 5 of their last 18 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between TPS - HPK were as follows:
16.01.2026
HPK
-
TPS
3:1
29.10.2025
TPS
-
HPK
1:0
09.09.2025
HPK
-
TPS
2:3
16.08.2025
TPS
-
HPK
2:0
17.01.2025
HPK
-
TPS
1:5
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
