Result
2:3
10/01/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.15 | 1.84 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 24 | 18 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 8.33% (2/24) | 16.67% (3/18) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 15 | 22 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 88.24% (15/17) | 91.67% (22/24) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 28.57% (2/7) | 0% (0/6) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (6/6) | 71.43% (5/7) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 24 | 29 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 45.28 | 54.72 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (0 - 1)
- 14:15, 0 - 1, Raty Aku (G), Stalberg S. (A), Tichacek J. (A2)
- 16:43, (2 min),
- 19:48, Ojantakanen K. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (1 - 0)
- 02:48, Erholtz E. (2 min),
- 02:58, 1 - 1, Yliniemi S. (G), Pakkila E. (A), Savinainen V. (A2)
- 16:13, Wernblom L. (2 min),
- 16:13, Erholtz E. (2 min),
- 16:13, Yliniemi S. (2 min),
- 16:13, Tichacek J. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (1 - 2)
- 04:29, Ojantakanen K. (2 min),
- 07:42, Teissala L. (2 min),
- 10:03, 1 - 2, Junttila J. (G), Stalberg S. (A), Antti-Roiko A. (A2)
- 17:07, Landen A. (2 min),
- 17:07, Raty Aku (2 min),
- 18:16, 1 - 3, Junttila J. (G), Erholtz E. (A),
- 19:41, 2 - 3, Binner A. (G), Maatta J. (A),
Chances of winning
TPS
42.8% | Draw
23.2% | Kärpät
34% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)Kärpät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kärpät might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for TPS than the current prediction. (-7.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with TPS that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kärpät than the current prediction. (+9.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kärpät could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
TPS - Kärpät Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.19 ↓
(2.44) |
3.99 ↓
(4.28) |
2.73 ↑
(2.34) |
7.2%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.25
What is the prediction for TPS - Kärpät?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. TPS will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Kärpät will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. TPS (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 15).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 1.
- TPS has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Kärpät is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Kärpät may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 48:58. (average 2.4:2.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:33. (average 2.2:3.3).
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against Kärpät?
TPS has won 5 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kärpät won against TPS?
Kärpät has won 6 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between TPS - Kärpät were as follows:
21.11.2025
Kärpät
-
TPS
0:4
04.01.2025
Kärpät
-
TPS
4:3
05.10.2024
TPS
-
Kärpät
2:4
27.01.2024
Kärpät
-
TPS
4:3
28.12.2023
TPS
-
Kärpät
3:5
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
