Result
3:4 penalties
04/03/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.64 | 3.26 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 17 | 39 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 17.65% (3/17) | 7.69% (3/39) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 20 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 36 | 14 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 92.31% (36/39) | 82.35% (14/17) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 33.33% (1/3) | 0% (0/2) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (2/2) | 66.67% (2/3) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 23 | 31 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 42.59 | 57.41 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 0)
- 00:39, Stenqvist J. (2 min),
- 05:11, Landen A. (2 min),
- 05:11, Morand A. (2 min),
- 06:23, Ikonen H. (2 min),
- 06:47, 1 - 0, Savinainen V. (G), Yliniemi S. (A), Wernblom L. (A2)
- 07:50, Lauridsen O. (2 min),
- 2nd Period (2 - 2)
- 07:38, 1 - 1, Daschke D. (G), Ikonen H. (A), Peters A. (A2)
- 16:58, 1 - 2, Intonen A. (G), Peters A. (A), Jandric S. (A2)
- 17:34, 2 - 2, Munkki V. (G), Ruokonen M. (A), Ylitalo N. (A2)
- 17:49, 3 - 2, Wernblom L. (G), Pakkila E. (A), Lauridsen O. (A2)
- 3rd Period (0 - 1)
- 05:05, 3 - 3, Morand A. (G), Viitasalo N. (A),
- Overtime (0 - 0)
- Penalties (0 - 1)
- 1, Ruohomaa M. (Penalty Shot),
- 1, Saarela A. (Penalty Shot),
- 2, Beaucage A. (Penalty Shot),
- 2, Wernblom L. (Penalty Shot),
- 3, Morand A. (Penalty Shot),
- 3, Yliniemi S. (Penalty Shot),
Chances of winning
TPS
30.7% | Draw
23.8% | Lukko
45.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+3.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-5.3%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lukko, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
TPS - Lukko Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.09 ↑
(2.84) |
3.85 ↑
(3.68) |
2.04 ↓
(2.24) |
7.4%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.00
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Lukko may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, TPS has had a series of home games.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- We predict that TPS will win today's game, with odds of 2.81.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 41:49. (average 2.1:2.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 2:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against Lukko?
TPS has won 11 of their last 27 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against TPS?
Lukko has won 16 of their last 27 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between TPS - Lukko were as follows:
06.02.2026
Lukko
-
TPS
3:2
05.12.2025
Lukko
-
TPS
4:2
13.09.2025
TPS
-
Lukko
3:0
01.08.2025
Lukko
-
TPS
5:1
14.03.2025
TPS
-
Lukko
1:4
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 57 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 214:138 | 113 |
| 2 | SaiPa | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 3 | KooKoo | 57 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 201:148 | 106 |
| 4 | JYP | 57 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 15 | 191:164 | 103 |
| 5 | Ilves | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 175:144 | 101 |
| 6 | Lukko | 57 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 173:145 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 57 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 155:156 | 88 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 58 | 21 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 147:155 | 84 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 57 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 130:149 | 80 |
| 11 | IFK Helsinki | 57 | 22 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 137:178 | 79 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 57 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 138:158 | 72 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 57 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 134:162 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 57 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 127:156 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 57 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 167:188 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 58 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 37 | 107:202 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
