Result
3:2
06/02/2026 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3 |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.05 | 2.57 |
| Shots on Goal |
|---|
| 28 | 28 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Shooting PCT |
|---|
| 10.71% (3/28) | 7.14% (2/28) |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 26 | 25 |
| Saves PCT |
|---|
| 92.86% (26/28) | 89.29% (25/28) |
| Penalties |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| PIM |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Power-play Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Shorthanded Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Power-play PCT |
|---|
| 33.33% (1/3) | 0% (0/4) |
| Pen. Killing PCT |
|---|
| 100% (4/4) | 66.67% (2/3) |
| Faceoffs Won |
|---|
| 28 | 40 |
| Faceoffs % |
|---|
| 41.18 | 58.82 |
| Empty Net Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Period (1 - 1)
- 08:40, 0 - 1, Uusikartano A. (G), Rafkin R. (A), Munkki V. (A2)
- 11:06, Rafkin R. (2 min),
- 12:40, Saarela A. (2 min),
- 12:40, Maatta J. (2 min),
- 16:48, 1 - 1, Olsson A. (G), Ikonen H. (A),
- 2nd Period (0 - 1)
- 03:42, 1 - 2, Binner A. (G), Nassen L. (A), Landen A. (A2)
- 17:14, Viitasalo N. (2 min),
- 3rd Period (2 - 0)
- 00:58, (2 min),
- 02:09, 2 - 2, Viitasalo N. (G), Saarela A. (A), Ruohomaa M. (A2)
- 03:16, 3 - 2, Jandric S. (G), Morand A. (A),
- 09:13, Saarela A. (2 min),
Chances of winning
Lukko
59.4% | Draw
20.7% | TPS
19.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Lukko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)TPS has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lukko than the current prediction. (-7.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lukko that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+3.8%)
Lukko - TPS Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.56 ↓
(1.7) |
4.42 ↑
(4.13) |
4.71 ↑
(4.17) |
7.8%
(7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 5.50
What is the prediction for Lukko - TPS?
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Lukko will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 4:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 4.
- In recent matches, Lukko has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- TPS has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Recently, TPS has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Lukko is the team to beat.
- We predict that Lukko will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lukko won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 52:42. (average 2.6:2.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Lukko won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:24. (average 3.3:2.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Lukko won against TPS?
Lukko has won 15 of their last 26 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against Lukko?
TPS has won 11 of their last 26 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Lukko - TPS were as follows:
05.12.2025
Lukko
-
TPS
4:2
13.09.2025
TPS
-
Lukko
3:0
01.08.2025
Lukko
-
TPS
5:1
14.03.2025
TPS
-
Lukko
1:4
30.11.2024
TPS
-
Lukko
1:2
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara | 51 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 188:125 | 100 |
| 2 | KooKoo | 50 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 181:123 | 96 |
| 3 | SaiPa | 51 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 173:139 | 94 |
| 4 | Lukko | 52 | 25 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 160:132 | 92 |
| 5 | KalPa | 51 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 153:144 | 90 |
| 6 | Ilves | 51 | 24 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 158:129 | 90 |
| 7 | JYP | 49 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 165:147 | 88 |
| 8 | Assat | 52 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 145:143 | 82 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo | 51 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 128:145 | 71 |
| 10 | Pelicans | 51 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 113:135 | 69 |
| 11 | TPS Turku | 52 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 123:143 | 67 |
| 12 | IFK Helsinki | 50 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 116:162 | 66 |
| 13 | Hameenlinna | 52 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 124:145 | 64 |
| 14 | Karpat | 53 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 157:172 | 60 |
| 15 | Jukurit | 51 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 115:140 | 59 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 51 | 9 | 1 | 10 | 31 | 99:174 | 39 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
