Result
2:4
29/01/2026 at 09:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- QSL - Round 14
- Referee: Al Malla A. (Qat)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA |
 Qatar | Al Kass One, Shoof |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 2.25 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 38% | 62% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (254/307) | 86% (415/484) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.22 | 2.25 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.04 | 1.60 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 13 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 11 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (254/307) | 86% (415/484) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (17/33) | 56% (31/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (40/56) | 72% (98/136) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (3/9) | 43% (10/23) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.57 | 1.32 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 83% (10/12) | 72% (13/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 41 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.60 | 1.04 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.40 | -0.96 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 36', Fayez A. 🟥,
- 38', 0 - 1, Sarabia P. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (2 - 3)
- 46', Issa S. ↓, Saad K. ↑,
- 48', 0 - 2, Aholou J. (Own goal),
- 58', 0 - 3, Toko Ekambi K. ⚽, Rodri (A),
- 59', Sarabia P. ↓, Olunga M. ↑,
- 59', Cristo ↓, Kouassi J. E. ↑,
- 59', El Sayed A. ↓, Said F. ↑,
- 62', 0 - 4, Lihadji I. ⚽,
- 68', Aholou J. ↓, Tahif A. ↑,
- 68', Hazaa A. ↓, Al Hajri S. ↑,
- 69', 1 - 4, Laidouni N. ⚽, Tannane O. (A),
- 70', Sherif M. ↓, Gouda M. ↑,
- 70', Toko Ekambi K. ↓, Hernandez G. ↑,
- 71', Lihadji I. ↓, Simo ↑,
- 75', Al Hussain A. 🟥,
- 77', Veretout J. ↓, Al Salati A. ↑,
- 82', Tannane O. 🟨,
- 83', Al Naimi M. 🟨,
- 88', 2 - 4, Mance A. ⚽, Al Hajri S. (A),
- 90+3', Mance A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+4', Al Salati A. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Umm-Salal
19.8% | Draw
21% | Al-Arabi Doha
59.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Umm-Salal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)Al-Arabi Doha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Umm-Salal than the current prediction. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Arabi Doha than the current prediction. (+1.3%)
Umm-Salal - Al-Arabi Doha Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.67 ↑
(4.37) |
4.4 ↓
(4.41) |
1.56 ↓
(1.61) |
8.3%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.50
What is the prediction for Umm-Salal - Al-Arabi Doha?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Umm-Salal will win (votes: 1 - 10%). Al-Arabi will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Arabi: 41.6% – 98.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Al-Arabi (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .
- O/U 5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 4.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 4.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 4 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 3.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2 and 5).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Umm-Salal won 3.
- Umm-Salal has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Al-Arabi is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Al-Arabi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Al-Arabi has had a series of home games.
- In this match, Al-Arabi is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Umm-Salal won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 25:33. (average 1.3:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Umm-Salal won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.3:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Umm-Salal won against Al-Arabi Doha?
Umm-Salal has won 5 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Al-Arabi Doha won against Umm-Salal?
Al-Arabi Doha has won 3 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Umm-Salal - Al-Arabi Doha were as follows:
29.08.2025
Al-Arabi Doha
-
Umm-Salal
3:2
18.04.2025
Umm-Salal
-
Al-Arabi Doha
2:0
13.12.2024
Al-Arabi Doha
-
Umm-Salal
2:1
08.12.2024
Al-Arabi Doha
-
Umm-Salal
0:3
17.04.2024
Umm-Salal
-
Al-Arabi Doha
2:1
Latest results of Umm-Salal
Latest results of Al-Arabi Doha
Qatar QSL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Al-Sadd | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 46:19 | 27 | 38 |
| 2 | Al-Gharafa | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 29:23 | 6 | 34 |
| 3 | Shamal | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 29:18 | 11 | 31 |
| 4 | Al Rayyan | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 35:28 | 7 | 28 |
| 5 | Qatar SC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27:26 | 1 | 24 |
| 6 | Al Arabi | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 30:32 | -2 | 24 |
| 7 | Al Wakra | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 23:24 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Al-Duhail | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 27:21 | 6 | 21 |
| 9 | Al Sailiya | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16:23 | -7 | 15 |
| 10 | Al Ahli Doha | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 21:35 | -14 | 15 |
| 11 | Umm-Salal | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 27:43 | -16 | 15 |
| 12 | Al-Shahaniya | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13:31 | -18 | 11 |
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
QSL (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Division 2
