Monterrey vs UNAM – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

04/05/2025 at 21:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio BBVA Bancomer (Monterrey).

Liga MX - Clausura - Play In - Final
Referee: Escobedo Gonzalez A. (Mex)
Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.54	0.69
Ball Possession
63%	37%
Total shots
17	6
Shots on target
5	2
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
3	0
Passes
89% (476/532)	80% (252/316)
Yellow Cards
3	4
Red Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.54	0.69
xG on target (xGOT)
1.89	0.35
Total shots
17	6
Shots on target
5	2
Shots off target
9	3
Blocked Shots
3	1
Shots inside the Box
9	3
Shots outside the Box
8	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
3	0
Touches in opposition box
20	11
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
5	2
Free Kicks
15	14
Passes
89% (476/532)	80% (252/316)
Long passes
64% (25/39)	51% (25/49)
Passes in final third
71% (80/113)	61% (34/56)
Crosses
38% (9/24)	58% (7/12)
Expected assists (xA)
0.55	0.67
Throw-ins
30	15
Fouls
14	15
Tackles
100% (11/11)	56% (15/27)
Duels won
43	58
Clearances
8	25
Interceptions
11	5
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	3
xGOT faced
0.35	1.89
Goals prevented
0.35	-0.11

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
41', Reyes L. 🟨,
45', Carrasquilla A. ↓, Pussetto I. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Cortizo J. ↓, Canales S. ↑,
58', 1 - 0, Berterame G. ⚽, Ocampos L. (A),
63', Trigos S. ↓, Quispe Cordova P. A. ↑,
63', Monroy P. ↓, Ruvalcaba J. ↑,
68', Ocampos L. ↓, Torres O. ↑,
68', Corona J. ↓, de la Rosa R. ↑,
69', Ruvalcaba J. 🟨,
75', Reyes L. ↓, Arteaga G. ↑,
75', Rodriguez J. ↓, Ambriz F. ↑,
76', Ruvalcaba J. 🟨,
80', Suarez L. ↓, Avila A. ↑,
89', 2 - 0, Deossa N. ⚽, Berterame G. (A),
90+1', Funes Mori R. 🟨,
90+2', Arteaga G. 🟨,
90+3', Nathan Silva 🟨,

Chances of winning

Monterrey
52.2%

Draw
27%

UNAM
20.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

28.8%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

28.6%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Monterrey has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Monterrey's performance.

UNAM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and UNAM might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monterrey than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Monterrey that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UNAM could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Monterrey - UNAM Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.1)	3.48 ↑ (3.25)	4.46 ↑ (3.5)	6% (7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Monterrey - UNAM?

Users Predictions: Monterrey will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Monterrey will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 3.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
UNAM may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Monterrey is a strong favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Monterrey won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 33:15. (average 1.7:0.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Monterrey won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 20:5. (average 1.8:0.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Monterrey won against UNAM?

Monterrey has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has UNAM won against Monterrey?

UNAM has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Monterrey - UNAM were as follows:

01.12.2024 UNAM - Monterrey 3:5

28.11.2024 Monterrey - UNAM 1:0

23.10.2024 Monterrey - UNAM 0:0

03.08.2024 Monterrey - UNAM 1:2

03.03.2024 Monterrey - UNAM 3:0

Latest results of Monterrey

27.04.2025 Monterrey - Pachuca 1:2 ✺

20.04.2025 Club León - Monterrey 0:2 ✺

16.04.2025 Monterrey - Club América 1:0 ✺

12.04.2025 Tigres UANL - Monterrey 2:1 ✺

05.04.2025 Monterrey - Chivas Guadalajara 3:1 ✺

Latest results of UNAM

27.04.2025 Juárez - UNAM 1:2 ✺

19.04.2025 Tigres UANL - UNAM 2:1 ✺

16.04.2025 UNAM - Santos Laguna 2:0 ✺

12.04.2025 UNAM - Juárez 0:0 ✺

09.04.2025 UNAM - Vancouver Whitecaps 2:2 ✺

Mexican Liga MX Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Monterrey	6	5	0	1	13:7	6	15
2	Cruz Azul	6	4	2	0	13:7	6	14
3	Pachuca	6	4	1	1	11:5	6	13
4	Club America	5	3	2	0	9:4	5	11
5	Tigres UANL	5	3	1	1	15:8	7	10
6	Toluca	6	3	1	2	13:9	4	10
7	Club Tijuana	6	2	3	1	10:9	1	9
8	Juarez	6	2	2	2	6:7	-1	8
9	Club Leon	6	2	1	3	5:9	-4	7
10	Santos Laguna	6	2	0	4	9:10	-1	6
11	Atl. San Luis	6	2	0	4	9:10	-1	6
12	Mazatlan FC	6	1	3	2	8:9	-1	6
13	UNAM Pumas	5	1	2	2	6:8	-2	5
14	Atlas	5	1	2	2	10:14	-4	5
15	Necaxa	6	1	2	3	6:10	-4	5
16	Guadalajara Chivas	5	1	1	3	8:10	-2	4
17	Queretaro	6	1	1	4	7:12	-5	4
18	Puebla	5	1	0	4	4:14	-10	3

Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )