Barcelona de Ilhéus vs União Carmolandense – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie D Barcelona de Ilhéus - União Carmolandense
Result
4:1
06/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie D - Round 11

Match Stats

Ball Possession
50%50%
Total shots
132
Shots on target
71
Corner Kicks
48
Total shots
132
Shots on target
71
Shots off target
61
Corner Kicks
48
Goalkeeper Saves
03

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (4 - 1)
  • 50', 1 - 0, Gianlucas ,
  • 63', 2 - 0, Gianlucas ,
  • 74', 3 - 0, Alex Sandre ,
  • 84', 3 - 1, ,
  • 90+3', 4 - 1, Juninho Carpina (Pen),

Chances of winning


Barcelona de Ilhéus
48.2%
Draw
29.1%
União Carmolandense
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
55.3% 24.7% 20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9% 25.9% 19.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Barcelona de Ilhéus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barcelona de Ilhéus's form might have worsened.
  • União Carmolandense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona de Ilhéus than the current prediction. (+9.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barcelona de Ilhéus, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for União Carmolandense than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
  • Barcelona de Ilhéus - União Carmolandense Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.89
    (1.63)
    3.13
    (3.65)
    4.02
    (4.5)
    9.7%
    (11%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Barcelona de Ilhéus - União Carmolandense?
  • Users Predictions: Barcelona de Ilhéus will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 59.78%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Barcelona de Ilhéus will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 and 6)
    • Barcelona is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • União Carmolandense has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • União Carmolandense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Barcelona will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Barcelona won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Barcelona de Ilhéus - União Carmolandense were as follows:
    10.05.2025 União Carmolandense - Barcelona de Ilhéus 3:0
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1LagartoCentral SC2 : 2, 0 : 1
    2Tuna LusoMaranhao2 : 0, 1 : 4
    3America RNJuazeirense2 : 0, 1 : 1
    4ImperatrizManaus1 : 2, 2 : 0
    5AE AltosIndependencia3 : 1, 5 : 1
    6Santa CruzSergipe3 : 1, 1 : 2
    7ASAFerroviario2 : 0, 1 : 0
    8ManauaraSampaio Correa1 : 0, 1 : 1
    9AparecidenseMarica2 : 2, 2 : 1
    10EC Sao JoseGoiatuba1 : 2, 1 : 1
    11Inter de LimeiraMarcilio Dias2 : 1, 0 : 0
    12Rio Branco ESLuverdense3 : 0, 0 : 0
    13PortuguesaMixto1 : 1, 0 : 1
    14CianorteJoinville4 : 0, 1 : 1
    15Barra FCCascavel3 : 0, 1 : 0
    16CeilandiaAgua Santa1 : 0, 1 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1Central SCMaranhao1 : 2
    2America RNImperatriz1 : 0
    3AE AltosSanta Cruz1 : 1
    4ASAManauara1 : 0
    5AparecidenseGoiatuba3 : 2
    6Inter de LimeiraRio Branco ES1 : 0
    7MixtoCianorte1 : 1
    8Barra FCCeilandia1 : 1