Universidad Católica del Ecuador vs Deportivo Cuenca

17/03/2026 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).

Liga Pro - Round 5
Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.40	0.62
Ball possession
61%	39%
Total shots
17	16
Shots on target
5	5
Big chances
1	1
Corner kicks
5	4
Passes
84% (384/458)	75% (210/281)
Yellow cards
2	1
Expected goals (xG)
1.40	0.62
xG on target (xGOT)
1.13	0.13
Total shots
17	16
Shots on target
5	5
Shots off target
10	8
Blocked shots
2	3
Shots inside the box
7	7
Shots outside the box
10	9
Hit the woodwork
1	0
Big chances
1	1
Corner kicks
5	4
Touches in opposition box
19	14
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	1
Free kicks
10	10
Passes
84% (384/458)	75% (210/281)
Long passes
54% (39/72)	38% (23/61)
Passes in final third
77% (103/134)	48% (34/71)
Crosses
14% (3/21)	16% (4/25)
Expected assists (xA)
0.91	0.20
Throw ins
23	15
Fouls
10	10
Tackles
77% (10/13)	50% (3/6)
Duels won
42	31
Clearances
18	21
Interceptions
5	10
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
5	5
xGOT faced
0.13	1.13
Goals prevented
0.13	0.13

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Alonso M. 🟨,
56', Fajardo J. 🟨,
60', Leguizamon N. 🟨,
63', Rivero G. ↓, Klimowicz M. ↑,
63', Leguizamon N. ↓, Ordonez J. ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Mejia E. ⚽, Fajardo J. (A),
66', Mejia E. ↓, Palacios D. ↑,
66', Clavijo E. ↓, Moreno L. ↑,
70', Diaz M. ↓, Mancinelli L. ↑,
70', Piedra M. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
77', Martinez F. ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
77', Diaz M. ↓, Cacciabue J. ↑,
82', Fajardo J. ↓, Palacios B. ↑,
82', Vega E. ↓, Chacon J. ↑,

Chances of winning

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
57.4%

Draw
26.5%

Deportivo Cuenca
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

27.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

29.6%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Universidad Católica del Ecuador's performance.

Deportivo Cuenca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Cuenca than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Cuenca Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.79)	3.49 ↑ (3.41)	5.7 ↑ (4.61)	7.9% (6.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Cuenca?

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Uni Católica will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Deportivo Cuenca will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Uni Católica: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Cuenca (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 3.
Uni Católica has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Deportivo Cuenca is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Uni Católica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Uni Católica is considered a favorite.
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Uni Católica won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:14. (average 1.8:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Uni Católica won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.8:1.6).

How many head-to-head matches has Universidad Católica del Ecuador won against Deportivo Cuenca?

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Deportivo Cuenca won against Universidad Católica del Ecuador?

Deportivo Cuenca has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Cuenca were as follows:

28.09.2025 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Cuenca 2:1

01.06.2025 Deportivo Cuenca - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 3:1

18.08.2024 Deportivo Cuenca - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 1:2

17.03.2024 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Deportivo Cuenca 3:3

06.10.2023 Deportivo Cuenca - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 2:3

Latest results of Universidad Católica del Ecuador

14.03.2026 LDU Quito - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 1:1 ✺

08.03.2026 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Leones del Norte 3:0 ✺

01.03.2026 Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 0:0 ✺

12.02.2026 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Juventud de Las Piedras 3:5 ✺

05.02.2026 Juventud de Las Piedras - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Deportivo Cuenca

13.03.2026 Deportivo Cuenca - Leones del Norte 1:1 ✺

08.03.2026 SD Aucas - Deportivo Cuenca 0:1 ✺

04.03.2026 Deportivo Cuenca - Libertad Loja 3:0 ✺

01.03.2026 Deportivo Cuenca - Barcelona Guayaquil 2:1 ✺

22.02.2026 Delfín - Deportivo Cuenca 1:0 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	8	6	1	1	16:8	8	19
2	U. Catolica	8	4	4	0	13:4	9	16
3	Barcelona SC	8	4	3	1	8:4	4	15
4	Aucas	8	3	3	2	10:8	2	12
5	Dep. Cuenca	8	3	2	3	9:8	1	11
6	Tecnico U	8	3	2	3	8:8	0	11
7	Delfin	8	3	2	3	4:4	0	11
8	Macara	8	2	4	2	6:5	1	10
9	Mushuc Runa	8	2	4	2	9:9	0	10
10	Libertad	8	2	4	2	8:8	0	10
11	LDU Quito	8	3	1	4	7:9	-2	10
12	Guayaquil City	8	2	3	3	5:9	-4	9
13	Orense	8	2	2	4	11:14	-3	8
14	Leones del Norte	8	1	4	3	4:9	-5	7
15	Emelec	8	2	2	4	6:10	-4	5
16	Manta	8	1	1	6	2:9	-7	4

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Universidad Católica del Ecuador vs Deportivo Cuenca – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV