Mushuc Runa vs Universidad Católica del Ecuador – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

05/07/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Bellavista (Ambato).

Liga Pro - Round 19
Referee: Araujo G. (Ecu)
Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.30	1.83
Ball Possession
23%	77%
Total shots
6	16
Shots on target
3	5
Big Chances
0	2
Corner Kicks
3	3
Passes
57% (89/157)	89% (473/533)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Red Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.30	1.83
xG on target (xGOT)
0.45	1.48
Total shots
6	16
Shots on target
3	5
Shots off target
3	4
Blocked Shots
0	7
Shots inside the Box
2	12
Shots outside the Box
4	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
0	2
Corner Kicks
3	3
Touches in opposition box
6	36
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	5
Free Kicks
8	7
Passes
57% (89/157)	89% (473/533)
Long passes
37% (22/60)	50% (18/36)
Passes in final third
30% (19/63)	74% (117/159)
Crosses
0% (0/8)	20% (4/20)
Expected assists (xA)
0.07	1.78
Throw-ins
14	15
Fouls
7	8
Tackles
75% (3/4)	50% (4/8)
Duels won
20	29
Clearances
28	24
Interceptions
8	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	2
xGOT faced
1.48	0.45
Goals prevented
0.51	-0.55

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Gracia A. ⚽,
20', Orejuela C. 🟨,
25', Romo R. 🟨,
28', Bentaberry B. 🟥,
33', Caicedo E. ↓, Chala Rosales W. J. ↑,
34', 1 - 1, Palacios B. (Pen),
35', Davila E. 🟨,
36', Romero Padilla D. A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Clavijo E. ↓, Londono A. ↑,
46', Gracia A. ↓, Mina G. ↑,
46', Orejuela C. ↓, Tapiero S. ↑,
66', Penilla C. ↓, Olmedo M. ↑,
72', Moreno L. ↓, Alonso M. ↑,
73', Rodriguez A. ↓, Troya R. ↑,
74', Dos Santos J. ↓, Simisterra R. ↑,
82', Valencia E. ↓, Mejia E. ↑,
82', Cacciabue J. ↓, Diaz M. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Mushuc Runa
36.2%

Draw
26.9%

Universidad Católica del Ecuador
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

27.1%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.2%

26.9%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mushuc Runa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad Católica del Ecuador than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.31)	3.45 ↓ (3.45)	2.5 ↓ (2.87)	8.3% (7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador?

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Uni Católica will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Uni Católica (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 1.
Mushuc Runa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Uni Católica has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:22. (average 1.2:2.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 1.3:2.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Universidad Católica del Ecuador?

Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Universidad Católica del Ecuador won against Mushuc Runa?

Universidad Católica del Ecuador has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador were as follows:

09.03.2025 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa 1:1

30.08.2024 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa 5:1

22.05.2024 Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 2:1

25.11.2023 Mushuc Runa - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 0:2

09.06.2023 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Mushuc Runa 3:2

Latest results of Mushuc Runa

22.06.2025 Mushuc Runa - Barcelona Guayaquil 0:5 ✺

15.06.2025 Delfín - Mushuc Runa 3:1 ✺

01.06.2025 Mushuc Runa - El Nacional 2:3 ✺

28.05.2025 Palestino - Mushuc Runa 0:2 ✺

23.05.2025 Independiente del Valle - Mushuc Runa 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Universidad Católica del Ecuador

29.06.2025 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle 0:3 ✺

25.06.2025 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Emelec 1:1 ✺

21.06.2025 El Nacional - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 0:3 ✺

01.06.2025 Deportivo Cuenca - Universidad Católica del Ecuador 3:1 ✺

28.05.2025 Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Vitória Salvador 1:0 ✺

Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ind. del Valle	21	12	7	2	39:19	20	43
2	LDU Quito	22	11	7	4	38:21	17	40
3	Barcelona SC	22	11	5	6	33:26	7	38
4	Dep. Cuenca	21	10	4	7	26:20	6	34
5	Orense	21	10	4	7	24:24	0	34
6	Libertad	21	9	6	6	31:26	5	33
7	Aucas	21	9	5	7	28:26	2	32
8	U. Catolica	21	7	7	7	34:28	6	28
9	Delfin	21	6	8	7	20:29	-9	26
10	Emelec	21	6	7	8	16:24	-8	25
11	EL Nacional	21	6	6	9	24:30	-6	24
12	Vinotinto	21	6	5	10	26:29	-3	23
13	Manta	21	5	8	8	27:34	-7	23
14	Macara	21	5	7	9	19:21	-2	22
15	Mushuc Runa	21	4	5	12	24:38	-14	17
16	Tecnico U	21	3	7	11	19:33	-14	16

      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
      Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )