Result
3:1
09/04/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 22
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 63% | 37% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 32', 1 - 0, Ochen E. ⚽,
- 37', 1 - 1, Kanyike M. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 59', 2 - 1, Kigozi S. ⚽,
- 78', 3 - 1, Kigozi S. ⚽,
Chances of winning
UPDF
56.4% | Draw
27.6% | Mbarara City
16% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
UPDF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in UPDF's performance.Mbarara City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mbarara City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for UPDF than the current prediction. (-19.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with UPDF that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mbarara City than the current prediction. (+16.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mbarara City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
UPDF - Mbarara City Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.6 ↓
(2.12) |
3.28 ↑
(3.1) |
5.64 ↑
(3.27) |
10.8%
(10%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for UPDF - Mbarara City?
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. UPDF (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
UPDF will win
(4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 44.94% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Big League and 13).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 3.
- UPDF is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Mbarara City is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- UPDF is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 10 head-to-head matches, UPDF won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:5. (average 1.2:0.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, UPDF won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 1.4:0.4).
How many head-to-head matches has UPDF won against Mbarara City?
UPDF has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mbarara City won against UPDF?
Mbarara City has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between UPDF - Mbarara City were as follows:
03.10.2025
Mbarara City
-
UPDF
0:1
17.02.2025
Mbarara City
-
UPDF
0:1
06.11.2024
UPDF
-
Mbarara City
2:1
26.04.2024
Mbarara City
-
UPDF
0:0
11.12.2023
UPDF
-
Mbarara City
1:1
Latest results of Mbarara City
Ugandan Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vipers | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 42:14 | 28 | 51 |
| 2 | Kitara | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 34:13 | 21 | 47 |
| 3 | Kampala City | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 34:18 | 16 | 45 |
| 4 | Villa | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 32:11 | 21 | 44 |
| 5 | Entebbe UPPC | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 19:14 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | NEC FC | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 24:16 | 8 | 37 |
| 7 | Police | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 32:26 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | BUL | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 24:21 | 3 | 30 |
| 9 | Maroons | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 18:15 | 3 | 29 |
| 10 | Express | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21:23 | -2 | 26 |
| 11 | URA SC | 22 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 18:23 | -5 | 22 |
| 12 | Lugazi | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 16:31 | -15 | 19 |
| 13 | UPDF | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17:30 | -13 | 17 |
| 14 | Mbarara City | 22 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 16:34 | -18 | 16 |
| 15 | Buhimba | 22 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 15:46 | -31 | 15 |
| 16 | Calvary | 22 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 9:36 | -27 | 8 |
Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Big League
