Canada vs USA, Winter Olympic Games - Ice Hockey – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

22/02/2026 at 08:10 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Chances of winning


Canada
41.5%
Draw
22.9%
USA
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42% 23.5% 34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5% 25.6% 37.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Canada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
  • USA has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canada than the current prediction. (-3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for USA than the current prediction. (+2%)
  • Canada - USA Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.29
    (2.25)
    4.1
    (4.03)
    2.66
    (2.74)
    5.7%
    (5.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 5.00
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canada won 3.
    • Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.
    • The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Canada won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 44:40. (average 2.8:2.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Canada - USA were as follows:
    20.02.2025 USA - Canada 2:3
    15.02.2025 Canada - USA 1:3
    Latest results of Canada
    20.02.2026 Canada - Finland 3:2
    18.02.2026 Canada - Czech Republic 4:3
    15.02.2026 Canada - France 10:2
    13.02.2026 Canada - Switzerland 5:1
    12.02.2026 Czech Republic - Canada 0:5
    Latest results of USA
    20.02.2026 USA - Slovakia 6:2
    18.02.2026 USA - Sweden 2:1
    15.02.2026 USA - Germany 5:1
    14.02.2026 USA - Denmark 6:3
    12.02.2026 Latvia - USA 1:5
    Draw
    Final tournament

    1/8-finals
    1CanadaBye
    2Czech RepublicDenmark3 : 2
    3FinlandBye
    4SwitzerlandItaly3 : 0
    5USABye
    6SwedenLatvia5 : 1
    7SlovakiaBye
    8GermanyFrance5 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1CanadaCzech Republic4 : 3
    2FinlandSwitzerland3 : 2
    3USASweden2 : 1
    4SlovakiaGermany6 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1CanadaFinland3 : 2
    2USASlovakia6 : 2

    Final
    1CanadaUSA

    3rd place
    2FinlandSlovakia