Result
1:2
06/07/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Gold Cup - Play Offs - Final
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | Sporty TV, StarTimes App |
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN |
 Australia | ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Canada | OneSoccer, TLN, TSN 4, TSN 5, Univision Canada, VIVA |
 Colombia | ESPN |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Hong-kong | myTV SUPER |
 Malaysia | Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka |
 Mexico | Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 Netherlands | Canal+, ESPN 1 |
 New-zealand | ESPN |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Norte |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Saudi-arabia | Aloula, KSA Sports 1 |
 Singapore | HUB Sports 2 |
 South-america | ESPN South, ViX Latin America |
 South-korea | Sky Sports Korea |
 Spain | Gol Play, GolStadium |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Ukraine | Maincast |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | Concacaf GO, FOX Network, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Galavision, Tubi TV, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.64 | 1.26 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (280/351) | 85% (441/518) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.64 | 1.26 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.77 | 2.25 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 12 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 41 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (280/351) | 85% (441/518) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (15/39) | 44% (18/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (37/62) | 74% (146/196) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (1/6) | 29% (7/24) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.23 | 1.42 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 19 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (12/19) | 39% (7/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 47 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.25 | 0.77 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.25 | -0.23 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 4', 1 - 0, Richards C. ⚽, Berhalter S. (A),
- 27', 1 - 1, Jimenez R. ⚽, Ruiz M. (A),
- 44', Montes C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 63', Adams T. 🟨,
- 69', de la Torre L. ↓, Downs D. ↑,
- 75', Mora G. ↓, Pineda O. ↑,
- 78', 1 - 2, Alvarez E. ⚽, Vasquez J. (A),
- 82', Adams T. ↓, McGlynn J. ↑,
- 85', Jimenez R. 🟨,
- 86', Jimenez R. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
- 86', Sanchez J. ↓, Reyes I. ↑,
- 86', Luna D. ↓, Aaronson B. ↑,
- 86', Arfsten M. ↓, Tolkin J. ↑,
- 87', Alvarado R. ↓, Huerta Valera C. S. ↑,
Chances of winning
USA
30.7% | Draw
32% | Mexico
37.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
USA has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)Mexico has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for USA than the current prediction. (+1.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mexico than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
USA - Mexico Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.08 ↑
(2.87) |
2.96 ↓
(3.06) |
2.54 ↓
(2.66) |
5.6%
(5.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for USA - Mexico?
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. USA will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Mexico will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 52.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31% – 73.8%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. USA (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Mexico (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH 0 - Mexico (votes: 6 - 85.7%).
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, USA won 2.
- Each of the two teams have built a series of wins lately.
- Mexico may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, USA won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:17. (average 1.2:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has USA won against Mexico?
USA has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mexico won against USA?
Mexico has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between USA - Mexico were as follows:
15.10.2024
Mexico
-
USA
2:0
24.03.2024
USA
-
Mexico
2:0
15.06.2023
USA
-
Mexico
3:0
19.04.2023
USA
-
Mexico
1:1
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | USA (D1) | Costa Rica (A2) | 3 : 2 |
| 2 | Canada (B1) | Guatemala (C2) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Mexico (A1) | Saudi Arabia (D2) | 2 : 0 |
| 4 | Panama (C1) | Honduras (B2) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | USA (D1) | Guatemala (C2) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Mexico (A1) | Honduras (B2) | 1 : 0 |
Final| 1 | USA (D1) | Mexico (A1) | 1 : 2 |
