Result
2:3
03/08/2026 at 15:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Besta deild karla - Round 17
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Iceland | SÝN Sport Ísland |
 Usa | SportsEngine Play |
 World | OneFootball TV |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 2.06 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 25 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (394/445) | 86% (418/487) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 2.06 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 1.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 25 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 11 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 18 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 39 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (394/445) | 86% (418/487) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 72% (39/54) | 59% (26/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (53/76) | 75% (107/142) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 43% (6/14) | 21% (6/29) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.56 | 1.49 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 7 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (9/17) | 73% (8/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 50 | 28 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 33 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.01 | 0.83 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.99 | -1.17 |
| Goal kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 15 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 16', 0 - 1, Waren B. ⚽, Atlason E. (A),
- 25', 1 - 1, Jonsson J. ⚽, Veseli S. (A),
- 28', Fridjonsson S. 🟨,
- 33', Kristjansson G. ↓, Leifsson A. ↑,
- 36', Gunnarsson J. 🟨,
- 45+3', Thorisson T. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Gardarson D. ↓, Skoglund A. ↑,
- 57', Thorisson T. ↓, Bjarnason A. ↑,
- 57', Atlason E. ↓, Hauksson B. ↑,
- 60', Veseli S. ↓, Heimisson B. ↑,
- 69', Palsson J. ↓, Pedersen P. ↑,
- 75', Hauksson J. 🟨,
- 77', Fridjonsson S. ↓, Gunnarsson H. ↑,
- 77', Heimisson L. ↓, Veldman M. ↑,
- 80', 2 - 1, Veldman M. ⚽, Heimisson B. (A),
- 81', Ingason B. ↓, Vilhjalmsson A. ↑,
- 81', Gunnarsson J. ↓, Hauksson A. ↑,
- 88', 2 - 2, Vilhjalmsson A. ⚽, Waren B. (A),
- 90', Hauksson A. 🟨,
- 90+4', 2 - 3, Eggertsson O. ⚽, Waren B. (A),
Chances of winning
Valur
37.4% | Draw
22.7% | Stjarnan
39.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Valur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Valur's form might have worsened.Stjarnan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Stjarnan's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valur than the current prediction. (+8.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Valur, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stjarnan than the current prediction. (-7.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Stjarnan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Valur - Stjarnan Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.5 ↑
(2.11) |
4.1 ↓
(4.24) |
2.34 ↓
(2.87) |
7.2%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.75
What is the prediction for Valur - Stjarnan?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Valur will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Stjarnan will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Valur: 19.1% – 73.3%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Besta deild karla (Championship Group: ) and 8 in the zone Besta deild karla (Relegation Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valur won 3.
- Valur is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Stjarnan's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Stjarnan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Stjarnan has had a series of away games.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Valur won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 45:30. (average 2.3:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Valur won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 31:16. (average 2.6:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Valur won against Stjarnan?
Valur has won 6 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Stjarnan won against Valur?
Stjarnan has won 4 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Valur - Stjarnan were as follows:
27.04.2026
Stjarnan
-
Valur
2:4
04.10.2025
Valur
-
Stjarnan
3:2
14.09.2025
Valur
-
Stjarnan
1:2
01.07.2025
Valur
-
Stjarnan
3:1
14.06.2025
Stjarnan
-
Valur
3:2
Latest results of Stjarnan
Icelandic Besta-deild karla Table
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik ✔ | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 58:16 | 42 | 45 |
| 2 | KR Reykjavik ✔ | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 64:39 | 25 | 39 |
| 3 | Fram ✔ | 18 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 45:34 | 11 | 37 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36:30 | 6 | 29 |
| 5 | Valur | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 31:36 | -5 | 22 |
| 6 | Akranes | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 30:36 | -6 | 22 |
| 7 | Keflavik | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 28:34 | -6 | 22 |
| 8 | Stjarnan | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 33:43 | -10 | 21 |
| 9 | Vestmannaeyjar | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 29:38 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 | Hafnarfjordur | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 22:32 | -10 | 17 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 24:36 | -12 | 15 |
| 12 | Thor Akureyri | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 18:44 | -26 | 15 |
Promotion ~ Besta deild karla (Championship Group: )
Besta deild karla (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Vikingur Reykjavik is Qualified for Besta deild karla (Championship Group )
KR Reykjavik is Qualified for Besta deild karla (Championship Group )
Fram is Qualified for Besta deild karla (Championship Group )
