Result
1:3
19/10/2025 at 12:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- HNL - Round 10
- Referee: Bel D. (Cro)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 3 |
 Croatia | MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 3.15 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 60% | 40% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (452/534) | 77% (273/354) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.71 | 3.15 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.98 | 2.68 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (452/534) | 77% (273/354) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (30/57) | 40% (26/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (82/125) | 63% (45/71) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (4/10) | 17% (2/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.75 | 0.75 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 7 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 54% (7/13) | 82% (14/17) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.68 | 0.98 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.32 | -0.02 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 6', Peric S. 🟨,
- 7', 0 - 1, Mamut I. (Pen),
- 24', Belcar L. 🟨,
- 24', Cabraja M. 🟨,
- 35', Filipovic J. 🟨,
- 36', Carevic M. 🟨,
- 36', 0 - 2, Skaricic L. ⚽,
- 41', Mamut I. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Erceg A. ↓, Cuic F. ↑,
- 47', 0 - 3, Latkovic A. ⚽, Mamut I. (A),
- 61', Bakic O. ↓, Kavelj A. ↑,
- 61', Vrzic L. ↓, Gashi M. ↑,
- 63', Mladenovski M. 🟨,
- 69', Mamut I. ↓, Antunovic M. ↑,
- 69', Mamic L. ↓, Marina M. ↑,
- 76', 1 - 3, Prsir J. (Pen),
- 77', Maglica F. ↓, Jovanov V. ↑,
- 78', Latkovic A. 🟨,
- 81', Peric S. ↓, Pavicic D. ↑,
- 82', Durakovic E. ↓, Fiolic I. ↑,
- 83', Mladenovski M. ↓, Tepsic N. ↑,
- 83', Latkovic A. ↓, Dabro M. ↑,
Chances of winning
Gorica
35.5% | Draw
31% | Varaždin
33.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Gorica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)Varaždin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gorica than the current prediction. (-1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varaždin than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Gorica - Varaždin Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.64 ↓
(2.68) |
3.05 ↑
(3.03) |
2.83 ↑
(2.76) |
6.1%
(6.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Gorica - Varaždin?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Gorica will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 8 and 5).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 1.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Gorica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There are questionable in Varaždin: Mladenovski M.
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gorica won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 26:23. (average 1.3:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Gorica won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 1.1:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Gorica won against Varaždin?
Gorica has won 3 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Varaždin won against Gorica?
Varaždin has won 5 of their last 15 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Gorica - Varaždin were as follows:
04.08.2025
Varaždin
-
Gorica
1:1
04.04.2025
Varaždin
-
Gorica
0:0
25.01.2025
Gorica
-
Varaždin
1:1
14.11.2024
Varaždin
-
Gorica
1:2
20.10.2024
Varaždin
-
Gorica
2:1
Latest results of Varaždin
Croatian HNL Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | D. Zagreb | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22:8 | 14 | 22 |
| 2 | Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 17:7 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | Lok. Zagreb | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:12 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Varazdin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13:11 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Slaven Belupo | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13:18 | -5 | 13 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 12 |
| 7 | Rijeka | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Gorica | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:16 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | Osijek | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Vukovar 1991 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Prva NL
