Result
0:1
04/05/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 7
- Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globo Internacional TV, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 1.13 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (356/407) | 85% (321/377) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 1.13 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.39 | 0.83 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (356/407) | 85% (321/377) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (15/28) | 48% (20/42) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 76% (73/96) | 80% (116/145) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 8% (2/25) | 29% (6/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.22 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (15/20) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 36 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.83 | 0.39 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.17 | 0.39 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 42', Lucas Freitas ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
- 42', Augusto L. ↓, Garre B. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 53', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
- 58', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
- 60', Felipe Anderson ↓, Allan ↑,
- 60', Torres F. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
- 60', 0 - 1, Vitor Roque ⚽, Estevao (A),
- 67', Tche Tche ↓, Adson ↑,
- 67', Moreira N. ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
- 75', Vitor Roque ↓, Flaco Lopez ↑,
- 81', Rios R. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
- 81', Estevao ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 83', Mateus Carvalho ↓, Alex Teixeira ↑,
Chances of winning
Vasco da Gama
16.3% | Draw
26.3% | Palmeiras
57.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vasco da Gama's form might have worsened.Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-7.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.65 ↑
(4.3) |
3.62 ↑
(3.36) |
1.66 ↓
(1.9) |
5.4%
(5.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 26.7% – 80.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 0.
- Vasco has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Palmeiras is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Palmeiras may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Palmeiras is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Vasco: Guilherme Estrella
(Knee Injury)
Lemos M.
(Injury)
Payet D.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues
(Knee Injury)
Mayke
(Hamstring Injury)
Micael
(Ankle Injury)
Raphael Veiga
(Shoulder Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Marcos Rocha
(Calf Injury)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 13:24. (average 0.8:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 1:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Palmeiras?
Vasco da Gama has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Vasco da Gama?
Palmeiras has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras were as follows:
22.09.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Palmeiras
0:1
13.06.2024
Palmeiras
-
Vasco da Gama
2:0
27.08.2023
Palmeiras
-
Vasco da Gama
1:0
23.04.2023
Vasco da Gama
-
Palmeiras
2:2
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 36:9 | 27 | 43 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 39 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32:14 | 18 | 38 |
| 4 | Bahia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 33 |
| 5 | Botafogo RJ | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 23:11 | 12 | 29 |
| 6 | Mirassol | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29:19 | 10 | 29 |
| 7 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 24:22 | 2 | 29 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 27 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 22:26 | -4 | 27 |
| 10 | Ceara | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 25 |
| 11 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:21 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 | Internacional | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22:26 | -4 | 24 |
| 13 | Gremio | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 22 |
| 15 | Santos | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 20:29 | -9 | 21 |
| 16 | Vasco | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 25:26 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 | Juventude | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 17:38 | -21 | 18 |
| 19 | Fortaleza | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:31 | -12 | 15 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12:27 | -15 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
