Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama
Result
3:0
01/10/2025 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 26
  • Referee: Klein R. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 1
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
portugalPortugalCanal 11
russiaRussiaMATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 1
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones 2, #Vamos
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.020.77
Ball Possession
44%56%
Total shots
119
Shots on target
63
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
13
Passes
83% (330/397)87% (439/504)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
2.020.77
xG on target (xGOT)
2.641.17
Total shots
119
Shots on target
63
Shots off target
35
Blocked Shots
21
Shots inside the Box
73
Shots outside the Box
46
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
13
Touches in opposition box
178
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
20
Free Kicks
157
Passes
83% (330/397)87% (439/504)
Long passes
47% (23/49)55% (23/42)
Passes in final third
72% (76/105)72% (65/90)
Crosses
18% (2/11)20% (3/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.480.41
Throw-ins
1814
Fouls
715
Tackles
68% (15/22)85% (11/13)
Duels won
5044
Clearances
1817
Interceptions
513
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
1.172.64
Goals prevented
1.17-0.36

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 0)
  • 6', 1 - 0, Lopez J. ,
  • 18', 2 - 0, Lopez J. ,
  • 24', 3 - 0, Vitor Roque , Lopez J. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 61', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
  • 61', Moreira N. , Gomez C. A. ,
  • 66', Raphael Veiga , Sosa R. ,
  • 66', Felipe Anderson , Torres F. ,
  • 67', Vegetti P. , David ,
  • 76', Vitor Roque , Bruno Rodrigues ,
  • 76', Lopez J. , Mauricio ,
  • 79', Lucas Oliveira , Mateus Carvalho ,
  • 81', Moreno A. 🟨,
  • 82', Pereira A. , Allan ,

Chances of winning


Palmeiras
78.9%
Draw
13.9%
Vasco da Gama
7.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
70.3% 18.7% 11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.4% 17.4% 10.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Palmeiras's performance.
  • Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-3.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
  • Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.28
    (1.33)
    7.73
    (5)
    15.42
    (8.5)
    -2.2%
    (7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama?
  • Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Vasco will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 44.1%94.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 4.
    • Now, both teams are in good form.
    • Palmeiras may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Palmeiras is the clear favorite.
    • There will not play in Palmeiras: Paulinho (Leg Injury)
    • There will not play in Vasco: Adson (Broken Leg) Cauan Barros (Yellow Cards) Jair (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista (Injury) Piquerez J. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Vasco: GB (Inactive) Lucas Piton (Calf Injury) Tche Tche (Thigh Injury) Thiago Mendes (Calf Injury)
    • We predict that Palmeiras will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.
    • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:13. (average 1.5:0.8).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.4:0.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama were as follows:
    04.05.2025 Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras 0:1
    22.09.2024 Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras 0:1
    13.06.2024 Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama 2:0
    27.08.2023 Palmeiras - Vasco da Gama 1:0
    23.04.2023 Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras 2:2
    Latest results of Palmeiras
    28.09.2025 Bahia - Palmeiras 1:0
    24.09.2025 Palmeiras - River Plate 3:1
    20.09.2025 Palmeiras - Fortaleza 4:1
    17.09.2025 River Plate - Palmeiras 1:2
    Latest results of Vasco da Gama
    27.09.2025 Vasco da Gama - Cruzeiro 2:0
    24.09.2025 Vasco da Gama - Bahia 3:1
    21.09.2025 Flamengo - Vasco da Gama 1:1
    14.09.2025 Vasco da Gama - Ceará 2:2
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Palmeiras28194553:262761
    2Flamengo RJ28187356:154161
    3Cruzeiro29168542:212156
    4Mirassol301510552:312155
    5Bahia29147840:32849
    6Botafogo RJ29137939:261346
    7Fluminense291351136:35144
    8Vasco291161246:41539
    9Corinthians301091132:35-339
    10Sao Paulo291081131:33-238
    11Bragantino291061334:44-1036
    12Atletico-MG29991127:32-536
    13Gremio29991130:37-736
    14Ceara29981227:28-135
    15Internacional30981335:43-835
    16Santos28871328:40-1231
    17Vitoria307101327:44-1731
    18Juventude29751723:53-3026
    19Fortaleza28661626:44-1824
    20Sport Recife292111622:46-2417

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet