Result
0:1
04/05/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 7
- Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globo Internacional TV, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Match Stats
| |
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Expected Goals (xG) |
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0.69 | 1.13 |
Ball Possession |
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52% | 48% |
Total shots |
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13 | 16 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 2 |
Big Chances |
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2 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
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7 | 11 |
Passes |
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87% (356/407) | 85% (321/377) |
Yellow Cards |
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2 | 0 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
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0.69 | 1.13 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
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0.39 | 0.83 |
Total shots |
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13 | 16 |
Shots on target |
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5 | 2 |
Shots off target |
---|
4 | 11 |
Blocked Shots |
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4 | 3 |
Shots inside the Box |
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6 | 5 |
Shots outside the Box |
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7 | 11 |
Hit the Woodwork |
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0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 3 |
Corner Kicks |
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7 | 11 |
Touches in opposition box |
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19 | 27 |
Accurate through passes |
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0 | 1 |
Offsides |
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1 | 2 |
Free Kicks |
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8 | 11 |
Passes |
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87% (356/407) | 85% (321/377) |
Long passes |
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54% (15/28) | 48% (20/42) |
Passes in final third |
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76% (73/96) | 80% (116/145) |
Crosses |
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8% (2/25) | 29% (6/21) |
Expected assists (xA) |
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0.49 | 1.22 |
Throw-ins |
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14 | 15 |
Fouls |
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11 | 8 |
Tackles |
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75% (15/20) | 77% (10/13) |
Duels won |
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44 | 45 |
Clearances |
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36 | 22 |
Interceptions |
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6 | 5 |
Errors leading to shot |
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0 | 2 |
Errors leading to goal |
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1 | 0 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
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1 | 5 |
xGOT faced |
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0.83 | 0.39 |
Goals prevented |
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-0.17 | 0.39 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 42', Lucas Freitas ↓, Luiz Gustavo ↑,
- 42', Augusto L. ↓, Garre B. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 53', Luiz Gustavo 🟨,
- 58', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
- 60', Felipe Anderson ↓, Allan ↑,
- 60', Torres F. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
- 60', 0 - 1, Vitor Roque ⚽, Estevao (A),
- 67', Tche Tche ↓, Adson ↑,
- 67', Moreira N. ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
- 75', Vitor Roque ↓, Flaco Lopez ↑,
- 81', Rios R. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
- 81', Estevao ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
- 83', Mateus Carvalho ↓, Alex Teixeira ↑,
Chances of winning
Vasco da Gama 16.3% | Draw 26.3% | Palmeiras 57.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vasco da Gama's form might have worsened.Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+5.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vasco da Gama, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-7.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
5.65 ↑ (4.3) |
3.62 ↑ (3.36) |
1.66 ↓ (1.9) |
5.4% (5.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Vasco will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 26.7% – 80.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 0.
- Vasco has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Palmeiras is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- Palmeiras may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Palmeiras has had a series of away games.
- In this match, Palmeiras is a strong favorite.
- There will not play in Vasco: Guilherme Estrella
(Knee Injury)
Lemos M.
(Injury)
Payet D.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Palmeiras: Bruno Rodrigues
(Knee Injury)
Mayke
(Hamstring Injury)
Micael
(Ankle Injury)
Raphael Veiga
(Shoulder Injury)
- There are questionable in Palmeiras: Marcos Rocha
(Calf Injury)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Vasco won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 13:24. (average 0.8:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Vasco won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 1:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Palmeiras?
Vasco da Gama has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palmeiras won against Vasco da Gama?
Palmeiras has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras were as follows:
22.09.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Palmeiras
0:1
13.06.2024
Palmeiras
-
Vasco da Gama
2:0
27.08.2023
Palmeiras
-
Vasco da Gama
1:0
23.04.2023
Vasco da Gama
-
Palmeiras
2:2
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Latest results of Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 30:6 | 24 | 36 |
2 | Cruzeiro | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 28:11 | 17 | 34 |
3 | Palmeiras | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 19:12 | 7 | 32 |
4 | Bahia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 20:13 | 7 | 28 |
5 | Bragantino | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 20:20 | 0 | 27 |
6 | Botafogo RJ | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 18:8 | 10 | 26 |
7 | Mirassol | 15 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 24:14 | 10 | 25 |
8 | Sao Paulo | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 22 |
9 | Ceara | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 16:16 | 0 | 21 |
10 | Internacional | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 17:20 | -3 | 21 |
11 | Corinthians | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 16:20 | -4 | 21 |
12 | Fluminense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 17:20 | -3 | 20 |
13 | Atletico-MG | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16:16 | 0 | 20 |
14 | Gremio | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16:22 | -6 | 20 |
15 | Vitoria | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 14:18 | -4 | 17 |
16 | Vasco | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16:20 | -4 | 15 |
17 | Santos | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15:21 | -6 | 15 |
18 | Fortaleza | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17:23 | -6 | 14 |
19 | Juventude | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10:32 | -22 | 11 |
20 | Sport Recife | 15 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 9:25 | -16 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet