Winterthur vs Lugano – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Swiss Super League Winterthur - Lugano
Result
2:4
05/10/2025 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Super League - Round 8
  • Referee: Blanco D. (Sui)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
switzerlandSwitzerlandBlue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.103.10
Ball Possession
32%68%
Total shots
929
Shots on target
514
Big Chances
16
Corner Kicks
14
Passes
74% (229/308)89% (578/648)
Yellow Cards
32
Expected Goals (xG)
1.103.10
xG on target (xGOT)
1.394.92
Total shots
929
Shots on target
514
Shots off target
27
Blocked Shots
28
Shots inside the Box
519
Shots outside the Box
410
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
16
Corner Kicks
14
Touches in opposition box
1741
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
1113
Passes
74% (229/308)89% (578/648)
Long passes
41% (25/61)42% (16/38)
Passes in final third
56% (47/84)80% (139/173)
Crosses
63% (5/8)41% (9/22)
Expected assists (xA)
0.801.87
Throw-ins
2120
Fouls
1311
Tackles
100% (8/8)92% (11/12)
Duels won
3147
Clearances
2713
Interceptions
119
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
103
xGOT faced
4.921.39
Goals prevented
0.92-0.61

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 27', 1 - 0, Dansoko B. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 4)
  • 46', 2 - 0, Hunziker A. , Maluvunu E. (A),
  • 58', 2 - 1, Bislimi U. , Mahou H. (A),
  • 59', Marques M. , Zanotti M. ,
  • 60', Belhadj M. , Dos Santos D. ,
  • 62', Maluvunu E. , Burkart N. ,
  • 63', Zuffi L. 🟨,
  • 64', 2 - 2, Dos Santos D. ,
  • 68', 2 - 3, Behrens K. ,
  • 68', Behrens K. 🟨,
  • 70', 2 - 4, Cimignani Y. ,
  • 71', Mahou H. 🟨,
  • 74', Mahou H. , Brault-Guillard Z. ,
  • 77', Sidler S. 🟨,
  • 77', Kasami P. , Cueni S. ,
  • 77', Dansoko B. , Momoh F. ,
  • 77', Jankewitz A. , Schneider R. ,
  • 81', Hunziker A. 🟨,
  • 88', Zuffi L. , Buess R. ,
  • 88', Cimignani Y. , Cassano C. ,
  • 89', Behrens K. , Duville-Parsemain A. ,

Chances of winning


Winterthur
12.2%
Draw
20.1%
Lugano
67.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
25.6% 24% 50.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.1% 23.5% 51.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Winterthur has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Winterthur's form might have worsened.
  • Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lugano's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Winterthur than the current prediction. (+12.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Winterthur, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-16.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lugano, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Winterthur - Lugano Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    10.08
    (3.68)
    5.9
    (3.93)
    1.67
    (1.87)
    -13.2%
    (6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Winterthur - Lugano?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Winterthur will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Lugano will win (votes: 6 - 75%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Lugano: 45%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 12 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 0.
    • Neither of the teams is performing well right now.
    • Winterthur may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Lugano is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Winterthur: Luthi L. (Thigh Injury) Rohner F. (Injury) Spagnoli A. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Lugano: Kelvin D. (Muscle Injury) Kendouci A. (Broken Leg) Koutsias G. (Inactive) Zanotti M. (Leg Injury)
    • There are questionable in Winterthur: Momoh F. (Inactive)
    • There are questionable in Lugano: Bottani M. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Winterthur won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 16:38. (average 0.8:1.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Winterthur won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:16. (average 0.9:1.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Winterthur - Lugano were as follows:
    25.01.2025 Winterthur - Lugano 2:3
    29.09.2024 Lugano - Winterthur 2:1
    16.05.2024 Lugano - Winterthur 4:2
    06.04.2024 Winterthur - Lugano 2:2
    10.12.2023 Lugano - Winterthur 2:1
    Latest results of Winterthur
    27.09.2025 Servette - Winterthur 4:0
    21.09.2025 Schaffhausen - Winterthur 0:4
    14.09.2025 Winterthur - Sion 2:3
    30.08.2025 Winterthur - Zürich 1:3
    24.08.2025 Grasshoppers - Winterthur 2:2
    Latest results of Lugano
    27.09.2025 Lugano - Grasshoppers 2:1
    17.09.2025 Lugano - Lausanne-Sport 1:1
    13.09.2025 St. Gallen - Lugano 1:0
    31.08.2025 Young Boys - Lugano 3:1
    17.08.2025 Cham - Lugano 3:2
    Swiss Super League Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Thun961219:13619
    2Basel960319:10918
    3St. Gallen960318:10818
    4Sion943214:10415
    5Young Boys942315:17-214
    6Luzern934216:15113
    7Lugano941413:15-213
    8Zurich941413:16-313
    9Lausanne923415:1419
    10Grasshoppers923414:1319
    11Servette922513:18-58
    12Winterthur902710:28-182

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