Francis Tiafoe vs Yosuke Watanuki – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

30/07/2025 at 16:40 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

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ATP - SINGLES: Toronto, hard - 1/32-finals

Match Stats


Aces
10	17
Double Faults
3	3
1st Serve Percentage
59%	48%
1st Serve Points Won
75% (42/56)	89% (41/46)
2nd Serve Points Won
62% (24/39)	60% (30/50)
Break Points Saved
78% (7/9)	67% (2/3)
1st Return Points Won
13% (6/46)	27% (15/56)
2nd Return Points Won
40% (20/50)	38% (15/39)
Break Points Converted
33% (1/3)	22% (2/9)
Winners
19	45
Unforced Errors
32	16
Net Points Won
63% (5/8)	0% (0/3)
Service Points Won
69% (65/94)	74% (70/95)
Return Points Won
26% (25/95)	31% (29/94)
Total Points Won
48% (90/189)	52% (99/189)
Last 10 Balls
6	4
Match Points Saved
0	2
Service Games Won
87% (13/15)	94% (15/16)
Return Games Won
6% (1/16)	13% (2/15)
Total Games Won
45% (14/31)	55% (17/31)

Chances of winning

Francis Tiafoe
70.7%

Yosuke Watanuki
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.7%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Yosuke Watanuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yosuke Watanuki than the current prediction. (-5%)

Francis Tiafoe - Yosuke Watanuki Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.3)		3.26 ↑ (3.07)	4.9% (9.5%)

What is the prediction for Francis Tiafoe - Yosuke Watanuki?

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Watanuki will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tiafoe: 48.9% – 92.3%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 1 - 50%). Watanuki (votes: 1 - 50%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 12. Watanuki is ranked ATP: 158.
Tiafoe has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Watanuki is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Watanuki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Tiafoe is a strong favorite.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Francis Tiafoe won against Yosuke Watanuki?

Francis Tiafoe has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Yosuke Watanuki won against Francis Tiafoe?

Yosuke Watanuki has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Francis Tiafoe - Yosuke Watanuki were as follows:

09.03.2025 Yosuke Watanuki - Francis Tiafoe 2:0

25.03.2023 Yosuke Watanuki - Francis Tiafoe 1:2

Latest results of Francis Tiafoe

25.07.2025 Ben Shelton - Francis Tiafoe 2:0 ✺

24.07.2025 Flavio Cobolli - Francis Tiafoe 0:2 ✺

23.07.2025 Aleksandar Kovacevic - Francis Tiafoe 1:2 ✺

02.07.2025 Cameron Norrie - Francis Tiafoe 3:1 ✺

30.06.2025 Elmer Moller - Francis Tiafoe 0:3 ✺

Latest results of Yosuke Watanuki

28.07.2025 Yosuke Watanuki - Daniel Altmaier 2:1 ✺

26.07.2025 Dalibor Svrcina - Yosuke Watanuki 1:2 ✺

20.07.2025 Zachary Svajda - Yosuke Watanuki 2:1 ✺

20.07.2025 Jake Fellows - Yosuke Watanuki 0:2 ✺

17.07.2025 Yosuke Watanuki - Yuta Shimizu Shimizu Y. walkover ✺

Draw

Singles - Main

1/64-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Bye
2	Walton A.	Bonzi B.	2 : 1
3	Schoolkate T. (Q)	Fonseca J.	2 : 0
4	Bye	Arnaldi M. (32)
5	Griekspoor T. (24)	Bye
6	Herbert P. (Q)	Etcheverry T. M.	1 : 2
7	Martin D. (Q)	Munar J.	0 : 2
8	Bye	Cerundolo F. (14)
9	Medvedev D. (10)	Bye
10	Blockx A. (Q)	Svrcina D. (LL)	0 : 2
11	Arseneault N. (WC)	Royer V. (Q)	2 : 0
12	Bye	Popyrin A. (18)
13	Muller A. (29)	Bye
14	Kecmanovic M.	Halys Q.	2 : 1
15	Mochizuki S. (Q)	Mpetshi Perricard G.	0 : 2
16	Bye	Rune H. (5)
17	Musetti L. (3)	Bye
18	Shang J.	Duckworth J. (Q)	0 : 2
19	Monfils G.	Barrios Vera T. (Q)	1 : 2
20	Bye	Michelsen A. (26)
21	Shapovalov D. (22)	Bye
22	Smith C. (Q)	Tien L.	0 : 2
23	Ofner S. (PR)	Opelka R.	0 : 2
24	Bye	Machac T. (16)
25	Khachanov K. (11)	Bye
26	Fearnley J.	Ficovich J. P. (Q)	0 : 2
27	Nava E. (Q)	Bergs Z.	2 : 0
28	Bye	Atmane T. (LL)
29	Borges N. (30)	Bye
30	Bagnis F. (Q)	Pospisil V. (WC)	2 : 1
31	Safiullin R.	Blanchet U. (Q)	2 : 1
32	Bye	Ruud C. (8)
33	Tiafoe F. (7)	Bye
34	Watanuki Y. (Q)	Altmaier D.	2 : 1
35	Vukic A.	Martinez P.	2 : 0
36	Bye	Norrie C. (31)
37	Tsitsipas S. (23)	Bye
38	O'Connell C.	Tseng C. H. (LL)	2 : 0
39	Comesana F.	Dzumhur D.	2 : 0
40	Bye	De Minaur A. (9)
41	Cobolli F. (13)	Bye
42	Rinderknech A.	Galarneau A. (WC)	0 : 2
43	Marozsan F.	Dellien H.	2 : 0
44	Bye	Auger-Aliassime F. (21)
45	Nakashima B. (25)	Bye
46	Quinn E.	Nishioka Y.	2 : 0
47	Giron M.	Mannarino A. (Q)	0 : 2
48	Bye	Shelton B. (4)
49	Rublev A. (6)	Bye
50	Bellucci M. (RET.)	Gaston H.	1 : 1
51	Kopriva V.	Bu Y.	0 : 2
52	Bye	Sonego L. (28)
53	Davidovich Fokina A. (20)	Bye
54	Moutet C.	Brooksby J. (PR)	2 : 0
55	Boyer T. (Q)	Kovacevic A.	2 : 0
56	Bye	Mensik J. (12)
57	Fils A. (15)	Bye
58	Draxl L. (WC)	Carreno-Busta P.	1 : 2
59	McDonald M.	Goffin D.	2 : 0
60	Bye	Lehecka J. (19)
61	Diallo G. (27)	Bye
62	Coric B.	Gigante M. (WC)	1 : 2
63	Carballes Baena R.	Ugo Carabelli C. (RET.)	1 : 0
64	Bye	Fritz T. (2)

1/32-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Walton A.	2 : 0
2	Schoolkate T.	Arnaldi M. (32)	1 : 2
3	Griekspoor T. (24)	Etcheverry T. M.	0 : 2
4	Munar J.	Cerundolo F. (14)	1 : 2
5	Medvedev D. (10)	Svrcina D.	2 : 0
6	Arseneault N.	Popyrin A. (18)	0 : 2
7	Muller A. (29)	Kecmanovic M.	2 : 1
8	Mpetshi Perricard G.	Rune H. (5)	0 : 2
9	Musetti L. (3)	Duckworth J.	2 : 0
10	Barrios Vera T.	Michelsen A. (26)	0 : 2
11	Shapovalov D. (22)	Tien L.	0 : 2
12	Opelka R.	Machac T. (16)	2 : 1
13	Khachanov K. (11)	Ficovich J. P.	2 : 0
14	Nava E.	Atmane T.	2 : 0
15	Borges N. (30)	Bagnis F.	2 : 1
16	Safiullin R.	Ruud C. (8)	0 : 2
17	Tiafoe F. (7)	Watanuki Y.	2 : 1
18	Vukic A.	Norrie C. (31)	2 : 1
19	Tsitsipas S. (23)	O'Connell C.	1 : 2
20	Comesana F.	De Minaur A. (9)	0 : 2
21	Cobolli F. (13)	Galarneau A.	2 : 1
22	Marozsan F.	Auger-Aliassime F. (21)	2 : 0
23	Nakashima B. (25)	Quinn E.	2 : 0
24	Mannarino A.	Shelton B. (4)	0 : 2
25	Rublev A. (6)	Gaston H.	2 : 0
26	Bu Y.	Sonego L. (28)	0 : 2
27	Davidovich Fokina A. (20)	Moutet C.	2 : 0
28	Boyer T.	Mensik J. (12)	0 : 2
29	Fils A. (15)	Carreno-Busta P.	2 : 0
30	McDonald M.	Lehecka J. (19)	0 : 2
31	Diallo G. (27)	Gigante M.	2 : 0
32	Carballes Baena R.	Fritz T. (2)	0 : 2

1/16-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Arnaldi M. (32)	2 : 1
2	Etcheverry T. M.	Cerundolo F. (14)	0 : 2
3	Medvedev D. (10)	Popyrin A. (18)	1 : 2
4	Muller A. (29)	Rune H. (5)	0 : 2
5	Musetti L. (3)	Michelsen A. (26)	1 : 2
6	Tien L.	Opelka R.	2 : 0
7	Khachanov K. (11)	Nava E.	2 : 1
8	Borges N. (30)	Ruud C. (8)	0 : 2
9	Tiafoe F. (7)	Vukic A.	2 : 1
10	O'Connell C.	De Minaur A. (WO.) (9)
11	Cobolli F. (13)	Marozsan F.	2 : 1
12	Nakashima B. (25)	Shelton B. (4)	1 : 2
13	Rublev A. (6)	Sonego L. (28)	2 : 1
14	Davidovich Fokina A. (20)	Mensik J. (12)	2 : 0
15	Fils A. (15)	Lehecka J. (19)	1 : 2
16	Diallo G. (27)	Fritz T. (2)	0 : 2

1/8-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Cerundolo F. (RET.) (14)	1 : 0
2	Popyrin A. (18)	Rune H. (5)	2 : 1
3	Michelsen A. (26)	Tien L.	2 : 0
4	Khachanov K. (11)	Ruud C. (8)	2 : 0
5	Tiafoe F. (7)	De Minaur A. (9)	1 : 2
6	Cobolli F. (13)	Shelton B. (4)	1 : 2
7	Rublev A. (6)	Davidovich Fokina A. (RET.) (20)	1 : 1
8	Lehecka J. (19)	Fritz T. (2)	1 : 2

Quarter-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Popyrin A. (18)	2 : 1
2	Michelsen A. (26)	Khachanov K. (11)	0 : 2
3	De Minaur A. (9)	Shelton B. (4)	0 : 2
4	Rublev A. (6)	Fritz T. (2)	0 : 2

Semi-finals

1	Zverev A. (1)	Khachanov K. (11)	1 : 2
2	Shelton B. (4)	Fritz T. (2)	2 : 0

Final

1

Khachanov K. (11)

Shelton B. (4)

1 : 2