Result
2:2
20/02/2026 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Challenge League - Round 23
- Referee: Turkes M. (Sui)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 1.46 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (313/382) | 85% (394/466) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.83 | 1.46 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.89 | 1.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (313/382) | 85% (394/466) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 50% (24/48) | 66% (46/70) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (53/76) | 72% (89/123) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (4/13) | 33% (7/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.55 | 1.14 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 13 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (8/11) | 67% (10/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 18 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.42 | 0.89 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.58 | -1.11 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 22', 0 - 1, Golliard R. ⚽, Marchesano A. (A),
- 26', Strohbach I. 🟨,
- 41', Gnakpa J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 49', Ricardo Alves 🟨,
- 52', 1 - 1, Ricardo Alves ⚽, Correia O. (A),
- 63', Golliard R. ↓, Tasar V. ↑,
- 64', Lemina N. ↓, Neelakandan R. ↑,
- 64', Marchesano A. ↓, Weber P. ↑,
- 64', Bossiwa S. ↓, Bouchlarhem T. ↑,
- 64', El Jaouhari M. ↓, Caslei B. ↑,
- 67', 2 - 1, Bua K. ⚽, Caslei B. (A),
- 69', Doumbia O. ↓, Sessolo H. ↑,
- 70', 2 - 2, Tasar V. ⚽,
- 83', Pasche E. ↓, Kanoute M. ↑,
- 83', Correia O. ↓, Sene O. ↑,
- 85', Weber P. 🟨,
- 89', Bua K. ↓, Essiena Avang L. ↑,
Chances of winning
Étoile Carouge
30% | Draw
25.9% | Yverdon
44.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Étoile Carouge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Étoile Carouge's form might have worsened.Yverdon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Yverdon's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (+8.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Étoile Carouge, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yverdon than the current prediction. (-9.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Yverdon, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Étoile Carouge - Yverdon Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.08 ↑
(2.34) |
3.57 ↑
(3.49) |
2.09 ↓
(2.64) |
8.3%
(9.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Étoile Carouge - Yverdon?
Users Predictions:
Yverdon will win
(9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Yverdon will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 2.
- In recent matches, Étoile has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Yverdon is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Étoile: Rufli V.
(Red Card)
Walker M.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Yverdon: Busset R.
(Injury)
Camara S.
(Inactive)
Gunnarsson N.
(Inactive)
Le Pogam W.
(Leg Injury)
Sorgic D.
(Muscle Injury)
Tijani M.
(Yellow Cards)
- There are questionable in Étoile: Diallo M. M.
(Inactive)
Hoxha F.
(Inactive)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.8:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Étoile won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Étoile Carouge won against Yverdon?
Étoile Carouge has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Yverdon won against Étoile Carouge?
Yverdon has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Étoile Carouge - Yverdon were as follows:
30.11.2025
Yverdon
-
Étoile Carouge
2:0
12.09.2025
Étoile Carouge
-
Yverdon
2:1
19.07.2025
Yverdon
-
Étoile Carouge
FRO
Latest results of Étoile Carouge
Latest results of Yverdon
Swiss Challenge League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vaduz | 23 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 52:25 | 27 | 55 |
| 2 | Aarau | 23 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 43:30 | 13 | 50 |
| 3 | Yverdon | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 45:30 | 15 | 43 |
| 4 | Lausanne Ouchy | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 41:32 | 9 | 35 |
| 5 | Xamax | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33:34 | -1 | 31 |
| 6 | Rapperswil-Jona | 23 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 26:34 | -8 | 28 |
| 7 | Wil | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 20:35 | -15 | 24 |
| 8 | Stade Nyonnais | 23 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 24:31 | -7 | 22 |
| 9 | Etoile-Carouge | 23 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 24:36 | -12 | 19 |
| 10 | Bellinzona | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20:41 | -21 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Super League
Promotion ~ Super League (Promotion: )
Relegation ~ Promotion League
