Result
4:1
25/04/2026 at 12:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 11
- Referee: Diaz A. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Chile | Zapping Sports |
 Ecuador | Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+ |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.83 | 0.77 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (374/428) | 86% (351/406) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.83 | 0.77 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.28 | 0.77 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (374/428) | 86% (351/406) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 52% (28/54) | 57% (29/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (78/111) | 68% (54/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (3/17) | 23% (6/26) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 0.64 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 13 | 7 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 82% (9/11) | 100% (15/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.77 | 2.28 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.23 | -1.72 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 9', 0 - 1, Klimowicz M. ⚽, Diaz M. (A),
- 13', Davila E. 🟨,
- 16', Mosquera I. 🟨,
- 22', 1 - 1, Lemos L. ⚽, Ibarra R. (A),
- 45+5', 2 - 1, Castelli F. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 46', Garcia B. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
- 46', Diaz M. ↓, Siguenza M. ↑,
- 46', Morocho S. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
- 58', Angulo C. ↓, Minda T. ↑,
- 63', 3 - 1, Ibarra R. ⚽, Velasco K. (A),
- 68', Vega E. ↓, Leguizamon N. ↑,
- 68', Mosquera I. ↓, Maccari M. ↑,
- 75', Ibarra R. 🟨,
- 75', Ibarra R. ↓, Zambrano A. ↑,
- 75', Castelli F. ↓, Carrillo R. ↑,
- 78', 4 - 1, Carrillo R. ⚽, Davila E. (A),
- 81', Velasco K. ↓, Dibble N. ↑,
- 81', Davila E. ↓, Carcelen J. ↑,
- 90+1', Ordonez J. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Mushuc Runa
55.9% | Draw
26.3% | Deportivo Cuenca
17.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mushuc Runa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mushuc Runa's performance.Deportivo Cuenca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Cuenca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mushuc Runa than the current prediction. (-11.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mushuc Runa that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Cuenca than the current prediction. (+8.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportivo Cuenca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.66 ↓
(2.08) |
3.52 ↑
(3.12) |
5.23 ↑
(3.46) |
7.8%
(9.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Mushuc Runa will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Deportivo Cuenca will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mushuc Runa (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: ))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 1.
- Mushuc Runa is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Deportivo Cuenca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Mushuc Runa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Mushuc Runa is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mushuc Runa won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 20:31. (average 1:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mushuc Runa won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 1.4:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Mushuc Runa won against Deportivo Cuenca?
Mushuc Runa has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Deportivo Cuenca won against Mushuc Runa?
Deportivo Cuenca has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mushuc Runa - Deportivo Cuenca were as follows:
01.03.2025
Mushuc Runa
-
Deportivo Cuenca
3:1
19.10.2024
Mushuc Runa
-
Deportivo Cuenca
1:1
26.04.2024
Deportivo Cuenca
-
Mushuc Runa
5:0
21.10.2023
Mushuc Runa
-
Deportivo Cuenca
1:1
12.05.2023
Deportivo Cuenca
-
Mushuc Runa
3:0
Latest results of Mushuc Runa
Latest results of Deportivo Cuenca
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 22:13 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 21:8 | 13 | 22 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 13:10 | 3 | 20 |
| 4 | Aucas | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 14:11 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Guayaquil City | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10:11 | -1 | 18 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 10:10 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 | Dep. Cuenca | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14:16 | -2 | 17 |
| 8 | Mushuc Runa | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Macara | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13:12 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Orense | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17:17 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | Delfin | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5:6 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 | Emelec | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 9:15 | -6 | 14 |
| 13 | Leones del Norte | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10:12 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Libertad | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11:16 | -5 | 13 |
| 15 | Tecnico U | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9:13 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | Manta | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4:14 | -10 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
