Olympique Marseille vs Monaco, French Ligue 1 – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football French Ligue 1
Result
1:0
14/12/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Ligue 1 - Round 16
  • Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 1
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
austriaAustriaDAZN
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
cyprusCyprusCablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 Sport, Viaplay
finlandFinlandViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
franceFranceDAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
georgiaGeorgiaSetanta Sports 2
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN Sports 3
italyItalyLigue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Calcio
japanJapanDAZN Japan
kazakhstanKazakhstanSetanta Sports
kenyaKenyaGotv
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 4
mexicoMexicoCaliente TV, FOX One
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
nigeriaNigeriaSupersport Maximo 1
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaDisney+ Caribbean
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
polandPolandEleven Sports 3
portugalPortugalSport TV3
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 4
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-africaSouth-africaSupersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect
ukraineUkraineMEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomAmazon Prime Video, DAZN, Ligue 1+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsabeIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.862.12
Ball Possession
58%42%
Total shots
1818
Shots on target
87
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
37
Passes
82% (402/490)82% (287/350)
Yellow Cards
21
Expected Goals (xG)
1.862.12
xG on target (xGOT)
1.690.69
Total shots
1818
Shots on target
87
Shots off target
64
Blocked Shots
47
Shots inside the Box
1212
Shots outside the Box
66
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
37
Touches in opposition box
2642
Accurate through passes
03
Offsides
06
Free Kicks
1111
Passes
82% (402/490)82% (287/350)
Long passes
36% (15/42)51% (19/37)
Passes in final third
74% (101/136)76% (103/136)
Crosses
8% (1/13)5% (1/19)
Expected assists (xA)
1.271.18
Throw-ins
2014
Fouls
1111
Tackles
44% (4/9)56% (9/16)
Duels won
3646
Clearances
2524
Interceptions
714
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
56
xGOT faced
0.691.69
Goals prevented
-0.310.69

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 40', Kondogbia G. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Kondogbia G. ↓, O'Riley M. ↑,
  • 58', Pavard B. ↓, Paixao I. ↑,
  • 58', Murillo M. ↓, Balerdi L. ↑,
  • 64', Vanderson 🟨,
  • 81', Vermeeren A. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
  • 82', 1 - 0, Greenwood M. ⚽, Hojbjerg P. (A),
  • 83', Greenwood M. 🟨,
  • 86', Aubameyang P. ↓, Bakola D. ↑,
  • 86', Camara L. ↓, Ilenikhena G. ↑,
  • 86', Minamino T. ↓, Biereth M. ↑,

Chances of winning


Olympique Marseille
48.7%		Draw
25.2%		Monaco
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
51.9% 23.5% 24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1% 23.4% 24.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)
  • Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
    •

    Olympique Marseille - Monaco Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.97 ↑
    (1.82)    		 3.81 ↓
    (4.03)    		 3.63 ↓
    (3.84)    		 4.6%
    (5.8%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    What is the prediction for Olympique Marseille - Monaco?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.75 - Marseille (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Monaco (1.82) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • DC - Marseille (1.31) (votes: 1 - 50%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DNB - Marseille (1.50) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Olympique Marseille will win (44 of 54 users predict this - 81.48%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 71.12% – 91.84%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Olympique Marseille will win (18 of 24 users predict this - 75%) 🥇 Gold Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 31 high ROI users predict this event. Marseille (votes: 22 - 71%). Monaco (votes: 6 - 19.4%). Tie (votes: 3 - 9.7%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 8).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 1.
    • Marseille is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Monaco has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Marseille might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in Marseille: Gouiri A. (Shoulder Injury) Medina F. (Ankle Injury) Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Monaco: Fati A. (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Marseille: Murillo M. (Calf Injury)
    • There are questionable in Monaco: Pogba P. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 31:45. (average 1.6:2.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.4:1.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Olympique Marseille - Monaco were as follows:
    12.04.2025 Monaco - Olympique Marseille 3:0
    01.12.2024 Olympique Marseille - Monaco 2:1
    27.01.2024 Olympique Marseille - Monaco 2:2
    30.09.2023 Monaco - Olympique Marseille 3:2
    28.01.2023 Olympique Marseille - Monaco 1:1
    Latest results of Olympique Marseille
    09.12.2025 Saint-Gilloise - Olympique Marseille 2:3 ✺
    05.12.2025 Lille - Olympique Marseille 1:0 ✺
    29.11.2025 Olympique Marseille - Toulouse 2:2 ✺
    25.11.2025 Olympique Marseille - Newcastle United 2:1 ✺
    21.11.2025 Nice - Olympique Marseille 1:5 ✺
    Latest results of Monaco
    09.12.2025 Monaco - Galatasaray 1:0 ✺
    05.12.2025 Brest - Monaco 1:0 ✺
    29.11.2025 Monaco - Paris Saint-Germain 1:0 ✺
    26.11.2025 Paphos - Monaco 2:2 ✺
    22.11.2025 Rennes - Monaco 4:1 ✺
    French Ligue 1 Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1PSG24183353:193457
    2Lens24172545:212453
    3Lyon24143739:261345
    4Marseille24134751:331843
    5Lille24124837:31640
    6Rennes24117638:35340
    7Monaco24114940:36437
    8Strasbourg24105940:31935
    9Brest2496932:34-233
    10Lorient2489734:38-433
    11Toulouse2487933:28531
    12Angers24851122:30-829
    13Le Havre24681020:30-1026
    14Paris FC24681028:40-1226
    15Nice24661230:44-1424
    16Auxerre24461419:35-1618
    17Nantes24451522:41-1917
    18Metz24341722:53-3113

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
          Relegation ~ Ligue 2

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