Result
3:1
12/07/2025 at 21:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 1
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 World | VIX App |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.93 | 1.48 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 56% | 44% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (412/484) | 84% (321/384) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.93 | 1.48 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.30 | 1.73 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (412/484) | 84% (321/384) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (18/43) | 51% (26/51) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (73/107) | 73% (67/92) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (5/14) | 20% (3/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.79 | 1.14 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 75% (12/16) | 68% (13/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 46 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 16 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.73 | 2.30 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.73 | -0.70 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 8', Rodriguez I. 🟨,
- 18', Gallardo J. 🟨,
- 21', 0 - 1, Perez P. ⚽, Palavecino A. (A),
- 27', 1 - 1, Ruiz M. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 41', 2 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Ruiz M. (A),
- 45+1', Ruiz M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 60', Perez P. ↓, Rossano F. ↑,
- 60', Jesus Alcantar ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
- 66', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↓, Bruno Mendez ↑,
- 66', Paulinho ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- 71', Monreal R. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
- 75', Angulo J. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
- 83', Rodriguez I. ↓, Andrade A. ↑,
- 83', Calderon C. ↓, Badaloni T. ↑,
- 88', De Buen D. 🟨,
- 89', Vega A. ↓, Helinho ↑,
- 90+1', 3 - 1, Helinho ⚽, Castro N. (A),
Chances of winning
Toluca
59.2% | Draw
22.6% | Necaxa
18.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)
Toluca - Necaxa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.59 ↓
(1.66) |
4.19 ↑
(4.11) |
5.08 ↑
(4.72) |
6.5%
(5.9%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Toluca - Necaxa?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Toluca (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Toluca will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.
- In this match, Toluca is considered a favorite.
- There will not play in Toluca: Lopez P.
(Finger Injury)
- There will not play in Necaxa: Oliveros A.
(Leg Injury)
- There are questionable in Necaxa: Perez P.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 34:22. (average 1.7:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:8. (average 1.9:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Necaxa?
Toluca has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Necaxa won against Toluca?
Necaxa has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Necaxa were as follows:
08.03.2025
Toluca
-
Necaxa
5:2
27.10.2024
Necaxa
-
Toluca
1:3
10.02.2024
Necaxa
-
Toluca
3:3
02.07.2023
Toluca
-
Necaxa
0:0
26.12.2022
Toluca
-
Necaxa
1:0
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 31:14 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | Monterrey | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 23:17 | 6 | 25 |
| 3 | Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23:11 | 12 | 24 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21:12 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19:9 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Juarez | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15:12 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 19:11 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16:17 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Club Leon | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10:18 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Atl. San Luis | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16:18 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Atlas | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18:26 | -8 | 10 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11:20 | -9 | 9 |
| 16 | Mazatlan FC | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13:20 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:18 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Puebla | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9:26 | -17 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
