Result
2:5
25/01/2026 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 19
- Referee: Wattellier E. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+, ESPN 3 |
 Armenia | Fast Sports |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 5 |
 Brazil | Caze TV |
 Bulgaria | Nova Sport |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+, ESPN 3 |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN 3 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 1, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay |
 France | DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN Sports 3 |
 Italy | Ligue 1+ |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Kosovo | ART Sport 4 |
 Mexico | FOX One |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Portugal | Sport TV3 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2 |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 4 |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport 1 |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4 |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network |
 Venezuela | Disney+, Inter |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.28 | 2.55 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 53% | 47% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (405/472) | 82% (353/432) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.28 | 2.55 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.37 | 3.09 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 33 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (405/472) | 82% (353/432) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (15/39) | 51% (30/59) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (76/108) | 62% (38/61) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 11% (3/27) | 38% (3/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.76 | 1.50 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 63% (5/8) | 27% (3/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 32 | 34 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 10 | 31 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.09 | 1.37 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.91 | -0.63 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 4)
- 11', 0 - 1, Endrick ⚽, Tolisso C. (A),
- 16', 0 - 2, Kluivert R. ⚽, Merah K. (A),
- 32', 0 - 3, Morton T. ⚽,
- 34', 1 - 3, Kouao K. ⚽,
- 45+1', 1 - 4, Endrick ⚽, Morton T. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Tolisso C. ↓, Niakhate M. ↑,
- 62', Toure A. ↓, Stambouli B. ↑,
- 63', Yegbe T. ↓, Mboula U. ↑,
- 63', Deminguet J. ↓, Munongo B. ↑,
- 64', 2 - 4, Diallo H. ⚽, Kouao K. (A),
- 72', Kouao K. 🟨,
- 74', Merah K. ↓, de Carvalho M. ↑,
- 78', Colin M. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
- 87', 2 - 5, Endrick (Penalty Awarded),
- 88', Hein G. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
- 90+2', Endrick ↓, Hamdani A. ↑,
- 90+3', Moreira A. ↓, Himbert R. ↑,
Chances of winning
Metz
18.7% | Draw
24.4% | Lyon
56.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+1.9%)The ML Model estimate for Lyon aligns with the current prediction.
Metz - Lyon Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
5.12 ↑
(4.48) |
3.92 ↓
(4.04) |
1.68 ↓
(1.7) |
4.7%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Metz - Lyon?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.5 - Metz (2.21) (votes: 2 - 50%) .
- AH 0 - Lyon (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DNB - Lyon (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH -0.5 - Metz (4.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
- AH +0.75 - Metz (1.98) (votes: 3 - 60%) .
- AH +1 - Lyon (2.18) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Users Predictions:
Lyon will win
(43 of 49 users predict this - 87.76%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.58% – 96.94%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Lyon will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 33 high ROI users predict this event. Metz (votes: 7 - 21.2%). Lyon (votes: 26 - 78.8%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 1.
- Metz is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Lyon is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Lyon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Lyon is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J.
(Knee Injury)
Sy P.
(Concussion)
- There will not play in Lyon: Fofana M.
(Ankle Injury)
Nuamah E.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Lyon: Abner Vinicius
(Injury)
Ghezzal R.
(Muscle Injury)
Tagliafico N.
(Injury)
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Metz won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 11:36. (average 0.7:2.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:18. (average 1:2.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Metz won against Lyon?
Metz has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lyon won against Metz?
Lyon has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Metz - Lyon were as follows:
23.08.2025
Lyon
-
Metz
3:0
23.02.2024
Metz
-
Lyon
1:2
05.11.2023
Lyon
-
Metz
1:1
07.01.2023
Lyon
-
Metz
2:1
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 53:19 | 34 | 57 |
| 2 | Lens | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 45:21 | 24 | 53 |
| 3 | Lyon | 24 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 39:26 | 13 | 45 |
| 4 | Marseille | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 51:33 | 18 | 43 |
| 5 | Lille | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 37:31 | 6 | 40 |
| 6 | Rennes | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 38:35 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Monaco | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 40:36 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40:31 | 9 | 35 |
| 9 | Brest | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 32:34 | -2 | 33 |
| 10 | Lorient | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 34:38 | -4 | 33 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 33:28 | 5 | 31 |
| 12 | Angers | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 22:30 | -8 | 29 |
| 13 | Le Havre | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 20:30 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 28:40 | -12 | 26 |
| 15 | Nice | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 30:44 | -14 | 24 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 19:35 | -16 | 18 |
| 17 | Nantes | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 22:41 | -19 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 24 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22:53 | -31 | 13 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
