Result
1:0
21/09/2025 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 1 - Round 5
- Referee: Bollengier M. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 China | Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8 |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 3, Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 5, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool |
 France | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+ 5, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV |
 Germany | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch |
 Hong-kong | beIN SPORTS MAX |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 North-central-america | Disney+ Caribbean |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | Viaplay |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 2 |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 South-korea | Coupang Play |
 Sweden | Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Turkey | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 MAX |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 United-kingdom | Ligue 1 Pass |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 1.85 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (232/302) | 87% (391/450) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 1.85 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.36 | 1.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 6 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 30 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (232/302) | 87% (391/450) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 42% (28/66) | 49% (19/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (58/95) | 69% (77/112) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (3/13) | 32% (6/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.35 | 1.46 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 46% (12/26) | 54% (13/24) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 69 | 53 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.00 | 0.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.00 | -0.64 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 3', Magri F. (Pen),
- 35', Mensah G. 🟨,
- 45+2', 1 - 0, Danny Namaso ⚽, Sinayoko L. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 50', Methalie D. 🟨,
- 56', Methalie D. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
- 56', Edjouma N. ↓, Emersonn ↑,
- 63', Restes G. 🟨,
- 64', Oppegard F. 🟥,
- 65', Mara S. ↓, Akpa C. ↑,
- 70', Nicolaisen R. ↓, Sidibe D. ↑,
- 70', Francis A. ↓, Sauer M. ↑,
- 82', McKenzie M. 🟨,
- 82', Gboho Y. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
- 83', Sidibe D. 🟨,
- 85', Sinayoko L. ↓, Diousse A. ↑,
- 90+4', Casseres C. 🟨,
- 90+4', Hidalgo S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Auxerre
29% | Draw
29.8% | Toulouse
41.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Auxerre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Auxerre's form might have worsened.Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auxerre than the current prediction. (+7.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Auxerre, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-5.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toulouse, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Auxerre - Toulouse Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.3 ↑
(2.68) |
3.21 ↓
(3.37) |
2.35 ↓
(2.62) |
3.9%
(5.1%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Auxerre - Toulouse?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Auxerre will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Toulouse will win (votes: 11 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toulouse: 29.1% – 70.9%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Auxerre (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%).
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 0.
- Recent form of Auxerre has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Toulouse's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Auxerre may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
- There will not play in Auxerre: Buayi-Kiala N.
(Knee Injury)
Casimir J.
(Red Card)
Diomande S.
(Thigh Injury)
El Azzouzi O.
(Neck Injury)
- There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I.
(Knee Injury)
Messali R.
(Injury)
Schmidt N.
(Knee Injury)
Vossah A.
(Red Card)
- There are questionable in Auxerre: Akpa C.
(Groin Injury)
- In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Auxerre won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 11:28. (average 1:2.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Auxerre won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1.5:2.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Auxerre won against Toulouse?
Auxerre has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toulouse won against Auxerre?
Toulouse has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Auxerre - Toulouse were as follows:
09.02.2025
Auxerre
-
Toulouse
2:2
01.12.2024
Toulouse
-
Auxerre
2:0
27.05.2023
Toulouse
-
Auxerre
1:1
11.01.2023
Auxerre
-
Toulouse
0:5
Latest results of Auxerre
Latest results of Toulouse
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Marseille | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15:5 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | PSG | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12:4 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Lyon | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 5 | 15 |
| 4 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14:10 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Strasbourg | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9:7 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Lille | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Lens | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Paris FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Rennes | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:8 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Brest | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11:11 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Lorient | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:16 | -7 | 7 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4:8 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6:8 | -2 | 5 |
| 16 | Nantes | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:7 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | Angers | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3:6 | -3 | 5 |
| 18 | Metz | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5:16 | -11 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
