Albirex Niigata vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

20/07/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata).

J1 League - Round 24
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.42	2.17
Ball Possession
55%	45%
Total shots
12	19
Shots on target
1	8
Big Chances
2	4
Corner Kicks
5	2
Passes
82% (416/509)	80% (333/414)
Yellow Cards
2	0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.42	2.17
xG on target (xGOT)
0.07	1.33
Total shots
12	19
Shots on target
1	8
Shots off target
9	8
Blocked Shots
2	3
Shots inside the Box
10	13
Shots outside the Box
2	6
Hit the Woodwork
0	1
Big Chances
2	4
Corner Kicks
5	2
Touches in opposition box
25	34
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	3
Free Kicks
13	10
Passes
82% (416/509)	80% (333/414)
Long passes
39% (19/49)	47% (30/64)
Passes in final third
65% (70/107)	71% (133/188)
Crosses
64% (9/14)	38% (6/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.44	1.84
Throw-ins
15	21
Fouls
10	13
Tackles
45% (5/11)	63% (10/16)
Duels won
46	53
Clearances
30	21
Interceptions
7	15
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	1
xGOT faced
1.33	0.07
Goals prevented
-0.67	0.07

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Higashi S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', 0 - 2, Kinoshita K. ⚽,
59', Arai T. ↓, Hoshi Y. ↑,
59', Kasai K. ↓, Shimamura T. ↑,
69', Fitzgerald M. 🟨,
71', Tanaka S. ↓, Nakajima Y. ↑,
71', Kinoshita K. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
72', Ono Y. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
72', Horigome Y. ↓, Funaki K. ↑,
78', Araki H. ↓, Arai N. ↑,
82', Chiba K. 🟨,
84', Okumura J. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
90+2', Germain R. ↓, Germain V. ↑,
90+2', Higashi S. ↓, Maeda N. ↑,
90+7', Hashimoto K. ↓, Takagi Y. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Albirex Niigata
19.5%

Draw
24.7%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

25.6%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

25.4%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.79 ↑ (4.55)	3.81 ↑ (3.7)	1.72 ↓ (1.77)	5.4% (5.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Users Predictions: Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.

Preview Facts

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 5).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 3.
Niigata is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
In recent matches, Hiroshima has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Hiroshima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Hiroshima is the team to beat.
There will not play in Hiroshima: Arslan T. (Knee Injury)
In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 12:21. (average 0.6:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Niigata won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.4:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Albirex Niigata won against Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Albirex Niigata has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Sanfrecce Hiroshima won against Albirex Niigata?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima were as follows:

29.04.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Albirex Niigata 0:1

26.06.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Albirex Niigata 1:1

03.05.2024 Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:1

01.07.2023 Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2:0

26.02.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Albirex Niigata 1:2

Latest results of Albirex Niigata

05.07.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Albirex Niigata 2:1 ✺

29.06.2025 Albirex Niigata - Machida Zelvia 0:4 ✺

25.06.2025 Kawasaki Frontale - Albirex Niigata 3:1 ✺

21.06.2025 Avispa Fukuoka - Albirex Niigata 3:2 ✺

15.06.2025 Albirex Niigata - Yokohama F. Marinos 1:0 ✺

Latest results of Sanfrecce Hiroshima

16.07.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Fujieda MYFC 5:2 ✺

05.07.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:1 ✺

02.07.2025 Vissel Kobe - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:0 ✺

22.06.2025 Yokohama FC - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:4 ✺

14.06.2025 Kashima Antlers - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:1 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	24	14	4	6	34:22	12	46
2	Kashima Antlers	24	14	2	8	36:24	12	44
3	Kashiwa Reysol	24	12	8	4	33:23	10	44
4	Kyoto	24	12	6	6	40:29	11	42
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	24	13	3	8	29:18	11	42
6	Machida	24	12	4	8	34:25	9	40
7	Kawasaki Frontale	24	10	8	6	38:26	12	38
8	Urawa Reds	23	10	7	6	32:24	8	37
9	Cerezo Osaka	24	9	7	8	37:33	4	34
10	Gamba Osaka	24	10	4	10	29:31	-2	34
11	Avispa Fukuoka	23	8	7	8	21:23	-2	31
12	Okayama	24	8	6	10	20:22	-2	30
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	24	8	6	10	29:32	-3	30
14	FC Tokyo	24	8	5	11	27:34	-7	29
15	Nagoya Grampus	24	7	7	10	28:33	-5	28
16	Verdy	24	7	7	10	15:24	-9	28
17	Shonan Bellmare	24	6	6	12	20:37	-17	24
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	24	5	6	13	23:32	-9	21
19	Yokohama FC	24	5	4	15	14:30	-16	19
20	Albirex Niigata	24	4	7	13	24:41	-17	19

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League