Result
5:0
07/12/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 38
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.01 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 1 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (595/655) | 85% (399/467) |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.01 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.51 | 0.00 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 1 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 0 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 0 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 5 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 5 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 13 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 91% (595/655) | 85% (399/467) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (16/37) | 45% (21/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 85% (221/261) | 57% (30/53) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 26% (5/19) | 25% (1/4) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.50 | 0.10 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 13 | 4 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (5/10) | 40% (4/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 21 | 36 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 6 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.00 | 1.51 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.00 | -2.49 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 18', 1 - 0, Alonso J. ⚽, Rony (A),
- 31', Hugo Moura 🟥,
- 32', 2 - 0, Hulk ⚽,
- 35', Vegetti P. ↓, Leandrinho ↑,
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 49', 3 - 0, Dudu ⚽, Hulk (A),
- 56', Rony ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
- 69', 4 - 0, Dudu ⚽, Igor Gomes (A),
- 70', Bernard ↓, Alexsander ↑,
- 70', Renzo Saravia ↓, Gabriel Menino ↑,
- 70', Vitor Hugo ↓, Ruan Tressoldi ↑,
- 72', Matheus Franca ↓, Guilherme Estrella ↑,
- 72', Tche Tche ↓, GB ↑,
- 72', David ↓, Rodriguez J. ↑,
- 75', 5 - 0, Victor Luis (Own goal),
- 78', Dudu ↓, Cuello ↑,
Chances of winning
Atlético Mineiro
59% | Draw
24.2% | Vasco da Gama
16.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-3.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+3.5%)
Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.61 ↓
(1.72) |
3.9 ↑
(3.84) |
5.6 ↑
(4.63) |
5.8%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama?
Users Predictions:
9 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Vasco will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 11.9% – 76.9%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -1 - Vasco (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 50%). Vasco (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 2.
- Atlético MG has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Vasco is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Vasco may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Atlético MG is the undisputed favorite.
- There will not play in Atlético MG: Caio Maia
(Knee Injury)
Junior Santos
(Hip Injury)
Lyanco
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Patrick Silva
(Injury)
- There will not play in Vasco: Adson
(Broken Leg)
Cuesta C.
(Yellow Cards)
Garre B.
(Pelvis Injury)
Jair
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Atlético MG: Cuello
(Ankle Injury)
- There are questionable in Vasco: Lucas Piton
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 27:25. (average 1.4:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:9. (average 1.8:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Vasco da Gama?
Atlético Mineiro has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vasco da Gama won against Atlético Mineiro?
Vasco da Gama has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Vasco da Gama were as follows:
10.08.2025
Vasco da Gama
-
Atlético Mineiro
1:1
04.12.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Atlético Mineiro
2:0
19.10.2024
Vasco da Gama
-
Atlético Mineiro
1:1
02.10.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
Vasco da Gama
2:1
21.07.2024
Atlético Mineiro
-
Vasco da Gama
2:0
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Latest results of Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 23:10 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 24:10 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 23:16 | 7 | 26 |
| 4 | Sao Paulo | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17:11 | 6 | 23 |
| 5 | Athletico-PR | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 20:15 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Bahia | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17:14 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Botafogo RJ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 24:24 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 15:15 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Vasco | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 18:19 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Gremio | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15:16 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Cruzeiro | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 16 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12:17 | -5 | 15 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 | Atletico-MG | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 14:19 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | Internacional | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12:14 | -2 | 14 |
| 17 | Santos | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 18:21 | -3 | 14 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 9 |
| 19 | Remo | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13:23 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-SC | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12:24 | -12 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B
