Result
2:1
11/04/2026 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Pro - Round 8
- Referee: Aragon A. (Ecu)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Chile | Zapping Sports |
 Ecuador | Ecuavisa, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+ |
 Peru | Zapping Sports |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.95 | 0.66 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 69% | 31% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (569/640) | 73% (212/292) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.95 | 0.66 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.17 | 0.98 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 89% (569/640) | 73% (212/292) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 69% (35/51) | 42% (25/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 83% (181/217) | 50% (36/72) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (8/28) | 43% (3/7) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.45 | 0.38 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 85% (11/13) | 92% (12/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 50 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 11 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.98 | 1.17 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.02 | -0.83 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 9', Zambrano I. 🟨,
- 36', Caicedo B. 🟨,
- 45+4', 1 - 0, Vasquez S. ⚽, Velasco P. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Batalla H. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
- 46', Cortez Casierra G. J. ↓, Coronel D. ↑,
- 66', Chere A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
- 69', Bermudez M. 🟨,
- 72', Bermudez M. ↓, Armas D. ↑,
- 72', Corozo B. ↓, Valencia C. ↑,
- 73', 1 - 1, Caicedo B. ⚽, Guisamano J. (A),
- 79', Armas D. 🟨,
- 81', Herrera A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
- 82', Burgoa V. ↓, Zambrano Pesantez E. S. ↑,
- 82', Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
- 89', 2 - 1, Caicedo B. ⚽, Molina N. (A),
- 90+2', Mena A. ↓, Jaramilo R. ↑,
Chances of winning
Orense
50.6% | Draw
26% | Libertad Loja
23.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Orense's form might have worsened.Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Libertad Loja's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orense than the current prediction. (+8.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Orense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-6.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Loja, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Orense - Libertad Loja Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.84 ↑
(1.65) |
3.58 ↓
(3.65) |
3.95 ↓
(5.22) |
7.4%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Orense - Libertad Loja?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Orense will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Libertad will win (votes: 3 - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orense won 2.
- Orense has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- In recent matches, Libertad has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Orense is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Orense won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:10. (average 1.1:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Orense won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Orense won against Libertad Loja?
Orense has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Libertad Loja won against Orense?
Libertad Loja has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Orense - Libertad Loja were as follows:
21.12.2025
Orense
-
Libertad Loja
3:2
05.10.2025
Libertad Loja
-
Orense
2:0
13.07.2025
Orense
-
Libertad Loja
0:1
15.03.2025
Libertad Loja
-
Orense
4:1
18.10.2024
Orense
-
Libertad Loja
1:0
Latest results of Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. del Valle | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16:8 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13:4 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Barcelona SC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Aucas | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Dep. Cuenca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:8 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Tecnico U | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Delfin | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4:4 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Macara | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6:5 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Mushuc Runa | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Libertad | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | LDU Quito | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7:9 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Guayaquil City | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5:9 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Orense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Leones del Norte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4:9 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Emelec | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Manta | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2:9 | -7 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )
Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )
Liga Pro (Relegation Group: )
