Stoke City vs Derby County – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English League Championship
Result
3:1
09/08/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Championship - Round 1
  • Referee: Bell E. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.620.42
Ball Possession
68%32%
Total shots
123
Shots on target
72
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
73
Passes
87% (381/438)60% (125/207)
Yellow Cards
12
Expected Goals (xG)
1.620.42
xG on target (xGOT)
2.941.03
Total shots
123
Shots on target
72
Shots off target
41
Blocked Shots
10
Shots inside the Box
62
Shots outside the Box
61
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
10
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
73
Touches in opposition box
1512
Accurate through passes
30
Offsides
22
Free Kicks
1311
Passes
87% (381/438)60% (125/207)
Long passes
53% (31/58)35% (21/60)
Passes in final third
65% (63/97)43% (32/74)
Crosses
17% (4/24)38% (3/8)
Expected assists (xA)
1.200.27
Throw-ins
2320
Fouls
1214
Tackles
42% (5/12)79% (11/14)
Duels won
4249
Clearances
2130
Interceptions
36
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
1.032.94
Goals prevented
0.03-0.06

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 38', Thompson L. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 1)
  • 53', Jackson K. 🟨,
  • 60', 0 - 1, Morris C. ⚽, Blackett-Taylor C. (A),
  • 67', Goudmijn K. ↓, Ozoh D. ↑,
  • 69', 1 - 1, Baker L. ⚽, Thomas S. (A),
  • 73', Manhoef M. ↓, Donley J. ↑,
  • 74', Lawal B. ↓, Phillips A. ↑,
  • 78', Wilmot B. 🟨,
  • 80', Blackett-Taylor C. ↓, Weimann A. ↑,
  • 84', Pearson B. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
  • 90+4', Jackson K. ↓, Sanderson D. ↑,
  • 90+5', 2 - 1, Mubama D. ⚽, Seko T. (A),
  • 90+8', 3 - 1, Thomas S. ⚽, Donley J. (A),
  • 90+9', Mubama D. ↓, Bozenik R. ↑,

Chances of winning


Stoke City
42.7%		Draw
30.2%		Derby County
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.8% 28.8% 27.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
  • Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
    •

    Stoke City - Derby County Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.24 ↑
    (2.17)    		 3.12 ↓
    (3.3)    		 3.46 ↓
    (3.46)    		 5.5%
    (5.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
    What is the prediction for Stoke City - Derby County?
  • Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Stoke will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Derby will win (votes: 1 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 57.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.7% – 80.1%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 12 high ROI users predict this event. Stoke (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Derby (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 1.
    • Derby is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
    • Stoke may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Derby has had a series of away games.
    • Stoke is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Derby: Nelson C. (Knee Injury) Ward J. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Derby: Salvesen L. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 0.8:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Stoke won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Stoke City - Derby County were as follows:
    03.05.2025 Derby County - Stoke City 0:0
    02.11.2024 Stoke City - Derby County 2:1
    22.07.2023 Derby County - Stoke City 3:0
    Latest results of Stoke City
    02.08.2025 Stoke City - Burnley 1:0
    26.07.2025 Stoke City - Wolverhampton Wanderers 1:1
    23.07.2025 Crewe Alexandra - Stoke City 1:2
    16.07.2025 Brighton & Hove Albion - Stoke City 3:1 ✺
    03.05.2025 Derby County - Stoke City 0:0 ✺
    Latest results of Derby County
    02.08.2025 Derby County - Atromitos Athens 2:0 ✺
    29.07.2025 Solihull Moors - Derby County 2:4
    26.07.2025 Burton Albion - Derby County 2:1
    22.07.2025 Walsall - Derby County 2:3
    18.07.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Derby County 1:2 ✺
    English League Championship Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Coventry35218672:383471
    2Middlesbrough35199754:351966
    3Ipswich34189760:342663
    4Millwall35188947:40762
    5Hull351861156:49760
    6Wrexham351512854:45957
    7Southampton3514111057:461153
    8Derby351491252:46651
    9Watford3513121045:41451
    10Bristol City351481348:44450
    11Preston3512131041:40149
    12Birmingham3513101246:46049
    13Sheffield Utd351531750:48248
    14Stoke351381439:34547
    15QPR351381446:54-847
    16Swansea351371540:43-346
    17Norwich351361647:44345
    18Charlton3510111433:44-1141
    19Portsmouth341091534:44-1039
    20Blackburn351081733:46-1338
    21West Brom35981834:52-1835
    22Leicester3510101547:56-934
    23Oxford Utd357111731:47-1632
    24Sheffield Wed ✔ 35182621:71-50-7

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          Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
          Relegation ~ League One

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