Bahia vs Atlético Mineiro: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Brazilian Serie A Bahia - Atlético Mineiro
Result
2:1
12/07/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A Betano - Round 13
Bahia - Atlético Mineiro - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.560.31
Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
52
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
47
Passes
79% (295/372)82% (344/419)
Yellow Cards
22
Expected Goals (xG)
0.560.31
xG on target (xGOT)
0.410.20
Total shots
1810
Shots on target
52
Shots off target
94
Blocked Shots
44
Shots inside the Box
73
Shots outside the Box
117
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
00
Corner Kicks
47
Touches in opposition box
1916
Accurate through passes
01
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
1112
Passes
79% (295/372)82% (344/419)
Long passes
44% (23/52)36% (16/45)
Passes in final third
74% (104/140)75% (78/104)
Crosses
43% (6/14)19% (3/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.510.34
Throw-ins
2320
Fouls
1211
Tackles
59% (13/22)48% (13/27)
Duels won
5064
Clearances
2127
Interceptions
48
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
13
xGOT faced
0.200.41
Goals prevented
-0.80-1.06

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 13', Willian Jose 🟨,
  • 15', Guilherme Arana 🟨,
  • 20', Gustavo Scarpa 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 1)
  • 46', Gustavo Scarpa , Cuello ,
  • 46', Willian Jose , Rodriguez L. ,
  • 53', 1 - 0, Luciano Juba ,
  • 62', Gabriel Menino , Igor Gomes ,
  • 62', Dudu , Junior Santos ,
  • 81', Ademir , Kayky ,
  • 84', Caio Alexandre , Nicolas Acevedo ,
  • 85', Alonso J. , Isaac ,
  • 90', Erick Pulga , Cauly ,
  • 90', Everton Ribeiro , Michel Araujo ,
  • 90', Natanael , Bernard ,
  • 90+1', 1 - 1, Hulk ,
  • 90+8', 2 - 1, Michel Araujo , Cauly (A),
  • 90+9', Michel Araujo 🟨,

Chances of winning


Bahia
41.4%
Draw
31.6%
Atlético Mineiro
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.3% 32% 27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7% 33.1% 26.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
  • Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
  • Bahia - Atlético Mineiro Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.3
    (2.37)
    3.02
    (2.98)
    3.52
    (3.46)
    5.1%
    (4.7%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Bahia - Atlético Mineiro?
  • Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Bahia will win (votes: 12 - 60%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 1 - 5%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 38.5%81.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Bahia (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 2.
    • Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
    • Bahia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Atlético MG has had a series of home games.
    • Bahia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Bahia: Erick (Hamstring Injury) Kanu (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Atlético MG: Cadu (Knee Injury) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Cuello (Hamstring Injury) Everson (Yellow Cards) Palacios Alzate B. (Inactive) Patrick Silva (Broken tailbone) Rony (Yellow Cards)
    • There are questionable in Bahia: Rezende (Back Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bahia won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:24. (average 1.3:1.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Bahia won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:12. (average 2:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Bahia - Atlético Mineiro were as follows:
    15.09.2024 Bahia - Atlético Mineiro 3:0
    02.06.2024 Atlético Mineiro - Bahia 1:1
    06.12.2023 Bahia - Atlético Mineiro 4:1
    13.08.2023 Atlético Mineiro - Bahia 1:0
    Latest results of Bahia
    09.07.2025 Bahia - Fortaleza 2:1
    04.06.2025 Confiança - Bahia 2:0
    31.05.2025 Bahia - São Paulo 2:1
    Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ1283126:42227
    2Cruzeiro1273217:8924
    3Bahia1373316:12424
    4Bragantino1272314:11323
    5Palmeiras1171312:8422
    6Botafogo RJ1263316:7921
    7Fluminense1162315:12320
    8Atletico-MG1355314:12220
    9Mirassol1145217:12517
    10Corinthians1244413:15-216
    11Gremio1244412:15-316
    12Ceara1143413:11215
    13Internacional1335513:18-514
    14Vasco1341814:18-413
    15Sao Paulo1326510:16-612
    16Santos1232711:14-311
    17Vitoria1325610:15-511
    18Fortaleza1224612:18-610
    19Juventude112278:24-168
    20Sport Recife110385:18-133

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet

    Which TV channels are streaming of Bahia - Atlético Mineiro?
    It is being streamed on channel
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