Result
3:1
28/10/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Copa Sudamericana - Play Offs - Semi-finals
- Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports, Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD |
 Australia | Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3 |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, SBT, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Max Sport 4 |
 Canada | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Indonesia | Mola TV |
 Israel | Sport 3 |
 Italy | Como TV |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 2 |
 Malaysia | Mola |
 Mexico | Disney+, ESPN 2 |
 New-zealand | beIN Connect |
 Paraguay | Tigo Sports+ |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN |
 Poland | Polsat Sport 1 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Russia | Okko Sport |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 2 |
 Slovenia | Arena Sport 2 |
 South-america | DGO Latin America, ESPN South |
 Spain | LaLiga+, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, #Vamos |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Uruguay | Disney+, DSports 1 |
 Usa | beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+, DSports 1, ESPN, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.10 | 0.85 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (349/425) | 90% (442/492) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.10 | 0.85 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.00 | 1.01 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 3 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 9 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 8 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (349/425) | 90% (442/492) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (24/51) | 45% (21/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (68/108) | 68% (52/76) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 25% (3/12) | 17% (3/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.59 | 0.34 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (7/14) | 67% (8/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 38 | 38 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 15 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.01 | 3.00 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.01 | 0.00 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 36', 1 - 0, Guilherme Arana ⚽, Dudu (A),
- 43', 2 - 0, Bernard ⚽, Dudu (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 51', Arroyo J. P. 🟨,
- 58', Rony ↓, Hulk ↑,
- 63', 2 - 1, Spinelli C. ⚽,
- 69', Arroyo J. P. ↓, Guagua D. ↑,
- 73', 3 - 1, Hulk ⚽,
- 75', Dudu ↓, Biel ↑,
- 75', Fausto Vera ↓, Renzo Saravia ↑,
- 76', Biel 🟨,
- 80', Everson 🟨,
- 82', Mercado P. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,
- 82', Cortez G. ↓, Loor L. ↑,
- 83', Sornoza J. ↓, Zarate L. ↑,
- 87', Hoyos M. ↓, Vasquez Y. ↑,
- 88', Franco A. ↓, Alexsander ↑,
- 88', Bernard ↓, Reinier ↑,
Chances of winning
Atlético Mineiro
57.8% | Draw
26.3% | Independiente del Valle
15.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-0.8%)
Atlético Mineiro - Independiente del Valle Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.64 ↑
(1.49) |
3.57 ↓
(4.13) |
5.86 ↑
(5.82) |
6.1%
(8.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro - Independiente del Valle?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. Atlético MG will win (votes: 5 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.75 - Atlético MG (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Mineiro will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- 1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.
- Recent performances by Atlético MG have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Ind del Valle is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Atlético MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Atlético MG is the team to beat.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Atlético MG won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Atlético Mineiro won against Independiente del Valle?
Atlético Mineiro has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente del Valle won against Atlético Mineiro?
Independiente del Valle has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Atlético Mineiro - Independiente del Valle were as follows:
21.10.2025
Independiente del Valle
-
Atlético Mineiro
1:1
Latest results of Atlético Mineiro
Latest results of Independiente del Valle
Copa Sudamericana Table
Group StageGroup A | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Macara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Tigre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | America De Cali | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Alianza Atl | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 1 |
Group B | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Cienciano | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Juventud | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Puerto Cabello | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2:7 | -5 | 3 |
| 4 | Atletico-MG | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 |
Group C | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sao Paulo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | O'Higgins | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Boston River | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
Group D | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | San Lorenzo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | Dep. Cuenca | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Recoleta | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2:2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Santos | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 2 |
Group E | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Botafogo RJ | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Caracas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:2 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Racing Club | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Independiente | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:7 | -6 | 0 |
Group F | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Montevideo City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Gremio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Dep. Riestra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Palestino | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 2 |
Group G | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Vasco | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | A. Italiano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Olimpia Asuncion | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Barracas Central | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
Group H | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | River Plate | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3:1 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Carabobo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:1 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Bragantino | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:4 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Blooming | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)
