Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
3:3
23/09/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Challenge Cup - Round 4

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 3)
  • 20', 1 - 0, Honeyman S. ,
  • 25', 1 - 1, Arnott A. (Pen),
  • 26', 1 - 2, Cole R. , Johnston C. (A),
  • 36', 1 - 3, Arnott A. (Pen),
  • 39', 2 - 3, Arnott A. (Own goal),
  • 45+1', 3 - 3, Wallace T. , Honeyman S. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)

Chances of winning


Dumbarton
37.8%
Draw
26.3%
Kelty Hearts
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44% 25% 31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5% 24.7% 30.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Dumbarton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dumbarton's form might have worsened.
  • Kelty Hearts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (+6.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dumbarton, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (-5.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kelty Hearts, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.63
    (2.07)
    3.61
    (3.65)
    2.62
    (2.94)
    4%
    (9.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    Preview Facts
    • Dumbarton has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Kelty Hearts has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Recently, Kelty Hearts has had a series of home games.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dumbarton won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 2.2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Dumbarton won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts were as follows:
    05.04.2025 Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton 0:6
    28.12.2024 Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts 2:0
    09.11.2024 Kelty Hearts - Dumbarton 2:0
    31.08.2024 Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts 2:2
    09.09.2023 Dumbarton - Kelty Hearts 1:3
    Latest results of Dumbarton
    20.09.2025 East Kilbride - Dumbarton 1:1
    06.09.2025 East Fife - Dumbarton 1:1
    30.08.2025 Dumbarton - Edinburgh City 1:2
    26.08.2025 Dumbarton - Hearts B 1:0
    Latest results of Kelty Hearts
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/16-finals
    1ArbroathKelty Hearts3 : 2
    2Elgin CityEast Fife2 : 3
    3AlloaAirdrieonians2 : 3
    4MontroseSpartans2 : 1
    5Queen's ParkClyde2 : 1
    6Forfar AthleticEdinburgh City2 : 1
    7RaithHamilton5 : 2
    8Queen of SouthDunfermline4 : 3
    9Hearts BSt Johnstone0 : 1
    10Ross CountyCeltic B4 : 0
    11AyrPeterhead2 : 1
    12East KilbrideStranraer1 : 4
    13Cove RangersPartick Thistle1 : 2
    14DumbartonInverness0 : 9
    15StirlingMorton3 : 2
    16StenhousemuirAnnan2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1ArbroathEast Fife3 : 0
    2AirdrieoniansMontrose3 : 1
    3Queen's ParkForfar Athletic2 : 0
    4RaithQueen of South1 : 0
    5St JohnstoneRoss County2 : 0
    6AyrStranraer4 : 1
    7Partick ThistleInverness3 : 4
    8StirlingStenhousemuir1 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1ArbroathAirdrieonians2 : 3
    2Queen's ParkRaith1 : 2
    3St JohnstoneAyr3 : 4
    4InvernessStenhousemuir1 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1AirdrieoniansRaith1 : 2
    2AyrInverness1 : 2

    Final
    1RaithInverness