Result
2:1
21/02/2026 at 12:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- NB I. - Round 23
- Referee: Csonka B. (Hun)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Hungary | Duna World / M4 Sport + |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 1.38 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (229/317) | 76% (271/356) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 1.38 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.59 | 1.06 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 72% (229/317) | 76% (271/356) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (26/63) | 41% (26/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (59/96) | 65% (53/81) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (5/14) | 20% (3/15) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.96 | 0.51 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 38% (8/21) | 60% (3/5) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 31 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 21 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.06 | 1.59 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.06 | -0.41 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 20', 1 - 0, Vlijter G. ⚽,
- 22', 2 - 0, Gradisar N. ⚽, Vlijter G. (A),
- 27', Szakos B. ↓, Peto M. ↑,
- 28', Roguljic A. ↓, Kastrati L. II. ↑,
- 29', Holdampf G. 🟨,
- 34', Mucsanyi M. ↓, Sajban M. ↑,
- 39', Kastrati L. II. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Ambrose P. ↓, Vallejo A. ↑,
- 46', Vlijter G. ↓, Krajcsovics A. ↑,
- 57', Fiola A. 🟨,
- 61', Matko A. ↓, Horvath K. ↑,
- 61', Brodic F. ↓, Tucic M. ↑,
- 69', Holdampf G. ↓, Croizet Y. ↑,
- 83', Esiti A. 🟨,
- 84', Gradisar N. ↓, Katona B. L. ↑,
- 87', Stronati P. 🟨,
- 88', 2 - 1, Croizet Y. (Penalty Awarded),
- 89', Bodnar G. ↓, Bese B. ↑,
Chances of winning
Ujpest
49.8% | Draw
25.4% | Diósgyőri
24.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ujpest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)Diósgyőri has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ujpest than the current prediction. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Diósgyőri than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
Ujpest - Diósgyőri Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.88 ↑
(1.82) |
3.68 ↑
(3.67) |
3.74 ↓
(3.78) |
7.2%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Ujpest - Diósgyőri?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Ujpest will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Diósgyőri will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ujpest: 15.4% – 84.6%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ujpest won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Diósgyőri may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Ujpest is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ujpest won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 35:16. (average 1.8:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Ujpest won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 20:5. (average 2.2:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Ujpest won against Diósgyőri?
Ujpest has won 5 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Diósgyőri won against Ujpest?
Diósgyőri has won 0 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ujpest - Diósgyőri were as follows:
02.11.2025
Diósgyőri
-
Ujpest
1:3
25.07.2025
Ujpest
-
Diósgyőri
3:1
26.04.2025
Ujpest
-
Diósgyőri
1:1
01.02.2025
Diósgyőri
-
Ujpest
1:1
21.09.2024
Ujpest
-
Diósgyőri
0:0
Latest results of Diósgyőri
Hungarian NB I Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Gyor | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 49:25 | 24 | 49 |
| 2 | Ferencvaros | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 46:26 | 20 | 46 |
| 3 | Debrecen | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 36:30 | 6 | 40 |
| 4 | Paks | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 46:37 | 9 | 36 |
| 5 | Puskas Academy | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 31:30 | 1 | 35 |
| 6 | Kisvarda | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 30:37 | -7 | 35 |
| 7 | Zalaegerszegi | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 36:30 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Ujpest | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 33:41 | -8 | 29 |
| 9 | Nyiregyhaza | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 33:40 | -7 | 28 |
| 10 | MTK Budapest | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 44:53 | -9 | 26 |
| 11 | DVTK | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 32:39 | -7 | 24 |
| 12 | Kazincbarcika | 24 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 21:49 | -28 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ NB II.
