Genoa vs Milan: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Italian Serie A
Soccer Italian Serie A Genoa - Milan
Result
1:2
05/05/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A - Round 35
  • Referee: Collu G. (Ita)
Genoa - Milan - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.571.09
Ball Possession
40%60%
Total shots
1110
Shots on target
45
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
87
Passes
81% (273/337)88% (465/530)
Yellow Cards
15
Expected Goals (xG)
0.571.09
xG on target (xGOT)
0.841.95
Total shots
1110
Shots on target
45
Shots off target
53
Blocked Shots
22
Shots inside the Box
94
Shots outside the Box
26
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
02
Corner Kicks
87
Touches in opposition box
1928
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1214
Passes
81% (273/337)88% (465/530)
Long passes
50% (15/30)65% (32/49)
Passes in final third
65% (64/99)80% (64/80)
Crosses
29% (6/21)38% (3/8)
Expected assists (xA)
0.480.36
Throw-ins
1622
Fouls
1412
Tackles
50% (12/24)100% (5/5)
Duels won
5745
Clearances
1622
Interceptions
76
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
33
xGOT faced
1.950.84
Goals prevented
0.95-0.16

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 20', Pavlovic S. 🟨,
  • 27', Thorsby M. 🟨,
  • 28', Fofana Y. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 46', Sabelli S. ↓, Zanoli A. ↑,
  • 60', Junior Messias ↓, Vitinha ↑,
  • 61', 1 - 0, Vitinha ⚽, Martin A. (A),
  • 69', Loftus-Cheek R. 🟨,
  • 70', Jimenez A. ↓, Joao Felix ↑,
  • 70', Jovic L. ↓, Gimenez S. ↑,
  • 72', Thorsby M. ↓, Ahanor H. ↑,
  • 76', 1 - 1, Leao R. ⚽, Gimenez S. (A),
  • 77', 1 - 2, Frendrup M. (Own goal),
  • 79', Tomori F. ↓, Walker K. ↑,
  • 79', Pulisic C. ↓, Musah Y. ↑,
  • 82', Leao R. 🟨,
  • 84', Gabbia M. 🟨,
  • 86', Norton-Cuffy B. ↓, Ekhator J. ↑,
  • 90+2', Joao Felix 🟨,

Chances of winning


Genoa
20.3%		Draw
25.1%		Milan
54.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
23.3% 27% 49.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.2% 26.8% 50%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Genoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)
  • Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-4.6%)
    •

    Genoa - Milan Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.66 ↑
    (4.12)    		 3.8 ↑
    (3.56)    		 1.75 ↓
    (1.93)    		 4.8%
    (4.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    •
    What is the prediction for Genoa - Milan?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 75%).
  • Users Predictions: Milan will win (78 of 91 users predict this - 85.71%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 78.52% – 92.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Milan will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 9).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 0.
    • Genoa is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Milan is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • In this match, Milan is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Genoa: Balotelli M. (Coach's decision) Cuenca Martinez H. F. (Injury) Ekuban C. (Injury) Malinovsky R. (Ankle Injury) Miretti F. (Shoulder Injury) Onana J. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Genoa: Matturro A. (Thigh Injury)
    • There are questionable in Milan: Emerson Royal (Calf Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:28. (average 1:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Genoa won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 0.9:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Genoa - Milan were as follows:
    15.12.2024 Milan - Genoa 0:0
    05.05.2024 Milan - Genoa 3:3
    07.10.2023 Genoa - Milan 0:1
    Latest results of Genoa
    27.04.2025 Como - Genoa 1:0 ✺
    23.04.2025 Genoa - Lazio 0:2 ✺
    13.04.2025 Verona - Genoa 0:0 ✺
    04.04.2025 Genoa - Udinese 1:0 ✺
    29.03.2025 Juventus - Genoa 1:0 ✺
    Latest results of Milan
    27.04.2025 Venezia - Milan 0:2 ✺
    23.04.2025 Inter Milan - Milan 0:3 ✺
    20.04.2025 Milan - Atalanta 0:1 ✺
    11.04.2025 Udinese - Milan 0:4 ✺
    05.04.2025 Milan - Fiorentina 2:2 ✺
    Italian Serie A Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Lecce00000:000
    2Bologna00000:000
    3Pisa00000:000
    4Cremonese00000:000
    5Genoa00000:000
    6Napoli00000:000
    7Udinese00000:000
    8Sassuolo00000:000
    9AS Roma00000:000
    10Inter00000:000
    11Juventus00000:000
    12Fiorentina00000:000
    13AC Milan00000:000
    14Atalanta00000:000
    15Lazio00000:000
    16Cagliari00000:000
    17Torino00000:000
    18Parma00000:000
    19Verona00000:000
    20Como00000:000

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B

    Which TV channels are streaming of Genoa - Milan?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
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