Result
1:1
20/02/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 24
- Referee: Petit A. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 1.52 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 68% | 32% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (515/589) | 71% (189/265) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 1.52 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 0.88 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 13 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (515/589) | 71% (189/265) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (22/41) | 33% (21/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (94/143) | 55% (42/76) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (4/11) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.52 | 1.04 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (4/5) | 64% (14/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 45 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 16 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.88 | 0.72 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.12 | -0.28 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 30', 0 - 1, Roncaglia A. ⚽, Boutrah A. (A),
- 40', 1 - 1, Bardeli E. ⚽, Linguet A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 57', Guevara J. 🟨,
- 66', Bokele Mputu M. ↓, Daho A. ↑,
- 78', Zossou A. ↓, Kante A. ↑,
- 78', Sekongo A. ↓, Sylvestre E. ↑,
- 78', Merghem M. ↓, Sebas J. ↑,
- 79', Eickmayer J. ↓, Janneh J. ↑,
- 84', Tomi F. ↓, Zaouai A. ↑,
- 84', Boutrah A. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
- 90', Lagae B. ↓, Makhloufi M. ↑,
- 90', Linguet A. ↓, Diong P. ↑,
- 90+3', Kante A. 🟨,
- 90+4', Sanchez A. 🟨,
- 90+5', Diong P. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Dunkerque
44.5% | Draw
30.6% | Bastia
24.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Dunkerque has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dunkerque's form might have worsened.Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dunkerque than the current prediction. (+8.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dunkerque, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-3.2%)
Dunkerque - Bastia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.1 ↑
(1.82) |
3.08 ↓
(3.47) |
3.79 ↓
(4.08) |
6.4%
(8.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Dunkerque - Bastia?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.5 - Dunkerque (2.08) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Users Predictions:
Dunkerque will win
(22 of 24 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.61% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Dunkerque will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Dunkerque (votes: 9 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dunkerque won 1.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- In this match, Dunkerque is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Dunkerque: Abner F.
(Inactive)
Eguaras I.
(Inactive)
Essimi M.
(Inactive)
Massock T.
(Inactive)
Sasso V.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y.
(Injury)
Djedje D.
(Injury)
Guidi D.
(Inactive)
Parravicini N.
(Hernia)
Zilliox N.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Dunkerque: Sekongo A.
(Injury)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Dunkerque won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.7:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Dunkerque won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 1.3:2).
How many head-to-head matches has Dunkerque won against Bastia?
Dunkerque has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Dunkerque?
Bastia has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Dunkerque - Bastia were as follows:
03.10.2025
Bastia
-
Dunkerque
0:0
28.03.2025
Bastia
-
Dunkerque
2:0
24.09.2024
Dunkerque
-
Bastia
2:1
06.04.2024
Bastia
-
Dunkerque
1:1
05.12.2023
Dunkerque
-
Bastia
0:5
Latest results of Dunkerque
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 32 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 56:32 | 24 | 64 |
| 2 | Le Mans | 32 | 15 | 13 | 4 | 47:30 | 17 | 58 |
| 3 | St Etienne | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 53:36 | 17 | 57 |
| 4 | Red Star | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 41:35 | 6 | 54 |
| 5 | Reims | 32 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 47:31 | 16 | 52 |
| 6 | Rodez | 32 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 41:37 | 4 | 52 |
| 7 | Montpellier | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 39:28 | 11 | 50 |
| 8 | Annecy | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 46:36 | 10 | 49 |
| 9 | Pau FC | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 44:54 | -10 | 45 |
| 10 | Dunkerque | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 51:41 | 10 | 43 |
| 11 | Guingamp | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 42:47 | -5 | 40 |
| 12 | Boulogne | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 32:45 | -13 | 36 |
| 13 | Grenoble | 32 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 31:39 | -8 | 33 |
| 14 | Clermont | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Nancy | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 29:49 | -20 | 31 |
| 16 | Laval | 32 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 28:43 | -15 | 29 |
| 17 | Bastia | 32 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 22:37 | -15 | 25 |
| 18 | Amiens | 32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 36:57 | -21 | 24 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
