Bastia vs Montpellier – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

23/01/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Stade Armand Cesari (Bastia).

Ligue 2 - Round 20
Referee: Petit A. (Fra)
Where to Watch on TV:


France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.91	1.96
Ball possession
56%	44%
Total shots
15	9
Shots on target
4	5
Big chances
0	3
Corner kicks
6	1
Passes
82% (306/375)	73% (224/307)
Yellow cards
3	4
Red cards
1	0
Expected goals (xG)
0.91	1.96
xG on target (xGOT)
0.17	2.32
Total shots
15	9
Shots on target
4	5
Shots off target
6	4
Blocked shots
5	0
Shots inside the box
6	7
Shots outside the box
9	2
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Headed goals
0	1
Big chances
0	3
Corner kicks
6	1
Touches in opposition box
22	15
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	3
Free kicks
18	14
Passes
82% (306/375)	73% (224/307)
Long passes
37% (18/49)	41% (22/54)
Passes in final third
68% (80/118)	58% (39/67)
Crosses
15% (3/20)	50% (2/4)
Expected assists (xA)
0.55	1.07
Throw ins
32	19
Fouls
14	18
Tackles
67% (8/12)	75% (18/24)
Duels won
51	58
Clearances
13	41
Interceptions
18	7
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
3	4
xGOT faced
2.32	0.17
Goals prevented
0.32	0.17

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Mendy A. ⚽, Issoufou Y. (A),
25', Tchato E. 🟨,
33', Guidi D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Placide J. 🟨,
52', Ducrocq T. 🟨,
52', Omeragic B. 🟨,
54', Savanier T. (Penalty Awarded),
55', Aiki A. ↓, Boutrah A. ↑,
63', 0 - 2, Issoufou Y. ⚽, Mbuku N. (A),
68', Savanier T. ↓, Chennahi T. ↑,
73', Sebas J. ↓, Beliandjou R. ↑,
73', Bohnert F. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
73', Janneh J. ↓, Eickmayer J. ↑,
76', Ducrocq T. ↓, Vincent C. ↑,
76', Roncaglia A. 🟥,
85', Issoufou Y. 🟨,
86', Issoufou Y. ↓, Sishuba A. ↑,
89', Mincarelli L. 🟨,
90+2', Mbuku N. ↓, Junior Pereira da Silva E. ↑,

Chances of winning

Bastia
34%

Draw
30.9%

Montpellier
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

29.7%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

29.6%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bastia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Bastia - Montpellier Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (2.89)	3.02 ↓ (3.15)	2.67 ↑ (2.46)	6.9% (7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Bastia - Montpellier?

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Bastia will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Montpellier will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Bastia (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bastia (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National and 10).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 1.
Bastia is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
In recent matches, Montpellier has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Recently, Montpellier has had a series of away games.
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
There will not play in Bastia: Bathily Y. (Injury) Boutrah A. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury) Olmeta L. (Injury) Parravicini N. (Hernia) Zilliox N. (Inactive)
There will not play in Montpellier: Ngosso G. (Knee Injury) Sainte-Luce T. (Injury) Sishuba A. (Inactive)
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Bastia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:17. (average 1.1:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Bastia won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 1.5:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Bastia won against Montpellier?

Bastia has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Montpellier won against Bastia?

Montpellier has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Bastia - Montpellier were as follows:

20.09.2025 Montpellier - Bastia 2:0

Latest results of Bastia

16.01.2026 Laval - Bastia 0:2 ✺

10.01.2026 Bastia - Troyes 0:2 ✺

03.01.2026 Bastia - Grenoble 1:0 ✺

20.12.2025 Pontivy - Bastia 0:1 ✺

13.12.2025 Saint-Étienne - Bastia 2:2 ✺

Latest results of Montpellier

16.01.2026 Boulogne - Montpellier 1:0 ✺

11.01.2026 Metz - Montpellier 0:4 ✺

05.01.2026 Montpellier - Dunkerque 1:3 ✺

19.12.2025 Canet Roussillon - Montpellier 0:1 ✺

13.12.2025 Grenoble - Montpellier 1:1 ✺

French Ligue 2 Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Troyes	32	19	7	6	56:32	24	64
2	Le Mans	32	15	13	4	47:30	17	58
3	St Etienne	32	17	6	9	53:36	17	57
4	Red Star	32	15	9	8	41:35	6	54
5	Reims	32	13	13	6	47:31	16	52
6	Rodez	32	13	13	6	41:37	4	52
7	Montpellier	32	14	8	10	39:28	11	50
8	Annecy	32	14	7	11	46:36	10	49
9	Pau FC	32	12	9	11	44:54	-10	45
10	Dunkerque	32	11	10	11	51:41	10	43
11	Guingamp	32	10	10	12	42:47	-5	40
12	Boulogne	32	9	9	14	32:45	-13	36
13	Grenoble	32	6	15	11	31:39	-8	33
14	Clermont	32	7	10	15	35:43	-8	31
15	Nancy	32	7	10	15	29:49	-20	31
16	Laval	32	5	14	13	28:43	-15	29
17	Bastia	32	4	13	15	22:37	-15	25
18	Amiens	32	6	6	20	36:57	-21	24

      Promotion ~ Ligue 1
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Ligue 2 (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ National