Result
3:0
23/01/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- LaLiga2 - Round 23
- Referee: Bestard Servera L. (Esp)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Africa | CANAL+ Sport 3 |
 Argentina | DirecTV Sports, DSports 6 |
 Chile | DirecTV Sports |
 Ecuador | DirecTV Sports, DSports 6 |
 Greece | Nova Sports 6 |
 India | FanCode, FanCode |
 Indonesia | beIN Connect, Vidio |
 Laos | beIN Connect |
 Mexico | Sky Sport |
 North-central-america | DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte |
 Norway | TV2 Play |
 Peru | DirecTV Sports |
 Romania | Prima Sport PPV 2 |
 South-america | DGO Latin America |
 Spain | DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+ |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4 |
 Thailand | AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6 |
 Uruguay | DirecTV Sports, DSports 6 |
 Venezuela | DirecTV Sports, Inter |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 0.99 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (454/534) | 83% (320/386) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.86 | 0.99 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.45 | 0.21 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 22 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (454/534) | 83% (320/386) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 54% (32/59) | 50% (27/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (68/97) | 72% (88/123) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 33% (2/6) | 29% (4/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 1.23 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 17 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (11/20) | 55% (6/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.21 | 2.45 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.21 | -0.55 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 26', Curro 🟨,
- 33', 1 - 0, Larrubia D. ⚽,
- 35', Mejia M. 🟨,
- 38', 2 - 0, Chupe ⚽, Puga C. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Mejia M. ↓, Appin K. ↑,
- 64', Curro ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
- 71', Dotor C. 🟨,
- 71', Munoz J. ↓, Ochoa A. ↑,
- 72', Dotor C. ↓, Rodriguez R. ↑,
- 72', Cordoba I. ↓, Mollejo V. ↑,
- 72', Lizancos A. ↓, Bunuel A. ↑,
- 78', Chupe ↓, Nino A. ↑,
- 79', Lorenzo D. ↓, Dorrio J. ↑,
- 86', 3 - 0, Nino A. ⚽, Ochoa A. (A),
- 87', Merino I. ↓, Juanpe ↑,
- 87', Murillo D. 🟨,
- 90+1', Miguel F. ↓, Martinez B. ↑,
- 90+2', Mollejo V. 🟨,
- 90+2', Atienza M. 🟨,
- 90+3', Puga C. 🟨,
- 90+4', Gonzalez S. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Málaga
45.3% | Draw
31.3% | Burgos
23.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Málaga's performance.Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Burgos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-6.4%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Málaga that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+6.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Burgos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Málaga - Burgos Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.09 ↓
(2.45) |
3.01 ↑
(2.96) |
4.04 ↑
(3.07) |
5.8%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Málaga - Burgos?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH -0.25 - Málaga (1.70) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 0.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- DNB - Málaga (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH 0 - Málaga (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Málaga will win
(20 of 24 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.42% – 98.24%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Málaga will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 8 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 0.
- Málaga has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Burgos has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Burgos may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Burgos has had a series of home games.
- Málaga might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Málaga: Brasanac D.
(Knee Injury)
Enriquez R.
(Knee Injury)
Garcia V.
(Injury)
Luismi
(Face Injury)
Pastor A.
(Knee Injury)
Sanchez D.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Burgos: Chapela I.
(Injury)
Cordoba A.
(Inactive)
Nino F.
(Red Card)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.6:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Málaga won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Málaga won against Burgos?
Málaga has won 0 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Burgos won against Málaga?
Burgos has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Málaga - Burgos were as follows:
28.09.2025
Burgos
-
Málaga
2:1
31.05.2025
Málaga
-
Burgos
2:2
15.12.2024
Burgos
-
Málaga
0:0
21.01.2023
Málaga
-
Burgos
1:1
Spanish LaLiga2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Racing Santander | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 79:57 | 22 | 72 |
| 2 | Dep. La Coruna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 59:41 | 18 | 68 |
| 3 | Almeria | 37 | 20 | 7 | 10 | 74:56 | 18 | 67 |
| 4 | Castellon | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 65:48 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | Malaga | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 66:49 | 17 | 63 |
| 6 | Las Palmas | 37 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 49:31 | 18 | 63 |
| 7 | Burgos CF | 37 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 44:33 | 11 | 61 |
| 8 | Eibar | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 47:36 | 11 | 61 |
| 9 | Cordoba | 38 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 54:56 | -2 | 57 |
| 10 | Andorra | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 56:48 | 8 | 55 |
| 11 | Ceuta | 38 | 15 | 9 | 14 | 46:58 | -12 | 54 |
| 12 | Gijon | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 51:49 | 2 | 52 |
| 13 | Albacete | 38 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 49:51 | -2 | 50 |
| 14 | Granada CF | 38 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 48:49 | -1 | 48 |
| 15 | Valladolid | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 40:48 | -8 | 43 |
| 16 | Leganes | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 41:46 | -5 | 42 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad B | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 46:54 | -8 | 41 |
| 18 | Cadiz CF | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 36:55 | -19 | 39 |
| 19 | Mirandes | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 40:60 | -20 | 36 |
| 20 | Huesca | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 39:59 | -20 | 36 |
| 21 | Zaragoza | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 33:51 | -18 | 35 |
| 22 | Cultural Leonesa | 38 | 8 | 9 | 21 | 35:62 | -27 | 33 |
Promotion ~ LaLiga
Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation
