Result
1:1
01/03/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 24
- Referee: Verissimo F. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.17 | 1.51 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 36% | 64% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (214/289) | 87% (446/514) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.17 | 1.51 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.39 | 1.54 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 7 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 10 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 16 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (214/289) | 87% (446/514) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (31/69) | 45% (22/49) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 51% (45/89) | 70% (70/100) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 43% (6/14) | 24% (6/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.63 | 0.86 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 22 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 47% (7/15) | 73% (11/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 53 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 30 | 22 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.54 | 1.39 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.54 | 0.39 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 2', Maracas 🟨,
- 3', Cassiano (Penalty Awarded),
- 40', 1 - 0, Cassiano ⚽, Larrazabal G. (A),
- 42', Sousa D. 🟨,
- 45+1', Pinto D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Stjepanovic M. ↓, Assis A. ↑,
- 62', 1 - 1, Alanzinho (Penalty Awarded),
- 65', Brito R. 🟨,
- 66', Perez S. ↓, Mohamed I. ↑,
- 66', Osundina K. ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
- 70', Kiko Bondoso ↓, Landerson ↑,
- 70', Travassos ↓, Santos L. ↑,
- 70', Rodri ↓, John N. ↑,
- 83', Conte A. ↓, Rosas P. ↑,
- 83', Brito R. ↓, Marques J. ↑,
- 87', Martinez A. ↓, Kiko ↑,
- 89', Alanzinho 🟨,
- 90', Livolant J. ↓, Morais T. ↑,
Chances of winning
Casa Pia
34.5% | Draw
31.4% | Moreirense
34.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-3.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+5%)
Casa Pia - Moreirense Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.75 ↓
(2.95) |
3.01 ↓
(3.2) |
2.78 ↑
(2.46) |
5.6%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Casa Pia - Moreirense?
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Moreirense will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Moreirense (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Moreirense (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 8).
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Casa Pia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Casa Pia: Batista R.
(Inactive)
Fonte J.
(Injury)
Kiki
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Moreirense: Caio
(Inactive)
Michel
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Casa Pia: Osundina K.
(Injury)
Tchamba D.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Moreirense: Sousa V.
(Leg Injury)
Yan Maranhao
(Injury)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Casa Pia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 2:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Casa Pia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Casa Pia won against Moreirense?
Casa Pia has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Moreirense won against Casa Pia?
Moreirense has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Casa Pia - Moreirense were as follows:
27.09.2025
Moreirense
-
Casa Pia
2:1
15.02.2025
Moreirense
-
Casa Pia
3:2
14.09.2024
Casa Pia
-
Moreirense
3:1
12.05.2024
Casa Pia
-
Moreirense
0:1
08.01.2024
Moreirense
-
Casa Pia
1:4
Latest results of Casa Pia
Latest results of Moreirense
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
