Result
1:2
07/02/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 21
- Referee: Silva D. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 Portugal | TVI, V+ TVI |
Match Stats
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|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.12 | 2.45 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (298/377) | 88% (439/500) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.12 | 2.45 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.09 | 1.92 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 3 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 12 |
| Shots outside the box |
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| 1 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
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| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
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| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 9 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 79% (298/377) | 88% (439/500) |
| Long passes |
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| 30% (19/63) | 55% (33/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (35/65) | 77% (120/156) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (1/7) | 18% (6/34) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.42 | 1.32 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 25 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (11/16) | 68% (13/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 58 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 34 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.92 | 0.09 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.08 | -0.91 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 37', Konan G. 🟨,
- 39', Maracas 🟨,
- 40', Martinez A. 🟥,
- 42', Costa V. 🟥,
- 43', 0 - 1, Murilo de Souza (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Landerson ↓, Kiko Bondoso ↑,
- 55', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Varela G. ↑,
- 55', Toure T. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
- 59', Yan Maranhao 🟨,
- 59', Pinto D. 🟨,
- 60', Yan Maranhao ↓, Semedo L. ↑,
- 66', Esteves L. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
- 67', 1 - 1, Travassos ⚽,
- 74', Pinto D. ↓, Kevyn Monteiro ↑,
- 74', Rodri ↓, John N. ↑,
- 75', Caseres F. ↓, Moreira A. ↑,
- 75', Murilo de Souza ↓, Hernandez H. ↑,
- 85', Alanzinho ↓, Kiko ↑,
- 88', 1 - 2, Hernandez H. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Moreirense
24.6% | Draw
30.8% | Gil Vicente
44.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gil Vicente's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+5.9%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Moreirense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-6.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gil Vicente, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Moreirense - Gil Vicente Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.84 ↑
(3.19) |
3.06 ↑
(3.01) |
2.12 ↓
(2.42) |
5.8%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Moreirense - Gil Vicente?
Users Predictions:
16 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 6 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.5% – 74.5%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DNB - Moreirense (2.28) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.5 - Gil Vicente (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Moreirense (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Moreirense (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Gil Vicente (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 and 5).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 2.
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Gil Vicente may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Gil Vicente will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:22. (average 1.5:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:6. (average 1.4:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Moreirense won against Gil Vicente?
Moreirense has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gil Vicente won against Moreirense?
Gil Vicente has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Moreirense - Gil Vicente were as follows:
29.08.2025
Gil Vicente
-
Moreirense
2:0
06.04.2025
Gil Vicente
-
Moreirense
0:1
12.01.2025
Gil Vicente
-
Moreirense
1:0
08.11.2024
Moreirense
-
Gil Vicente
3:2
20.04.2024
Moreirense
-
Gil Vicente
0:1
Latest results of Moreirense
Latest results of Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 59:31 | 28 | 56 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 49 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 10 | Estoril | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 51:52 | -1 | 37 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 34 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 29:55 | -26 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 23:52 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
