Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer FIFA Club World Cup
Soccer FIFA Club World Cup Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund
Result
3:2
05/07/2025 at 16:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : FIFA Club World Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
  • Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)
Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.341.35
Ball Possession
49%51%
Total shots
1512
Shots on target
85
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
33
Passes
87% (430/493)92% (484/527)
Yellow Cards
12
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
2.341.35
xG on target (xGOT)
2.702.49
Total shots
1512
Shots on target
85
Shots off target
56
Blocked Shots
21
Shots inside the Box
118
Shots outside the Box
44
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
33
Touches in opposition box
2125
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
610
Passes
87% (430/493)92% (484/527)
Long passes
52% (24/46)71% (30/42)
Passes in final third
78% (107/138)83% (110/133)
Crosses
33% (5/15)25% (4/16)
Expected assists (xA)
1.310.38
Throw-ins
1718
Fouls
106
Tackles
63% (10/16)67% (4/6)
Duels won
3029
Clearances
1320
Interceptions
916
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
35
xGOT faced
2.492.70
Goals prevented
-0.20-0.31

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 10', 1 - 0, Garcia G. ⚽, Guler A. (A),
  • 20', 2 - 0, Garcia F. ⚽, Alexander-Arnold T. (A),
  • 37', Gross P. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 46', Adeyemi K. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
  • 46', Sule N. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
  • 46', Gross P. ↓, Nmecha F. ↑,
  • 63', Brandt J. ↓, Duranville J. ↑,
  • 63', Couto Y. 🟨,
  • 67', Vinicius Junior ↓, Modric L. ↑,
  • 67', Bellingham J. ↓, Mbappe K. ↑,
  • 67', Alexander-Arnold T. ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
  • 81', Duranville J. ↓, Chukwuemeka C. ↑,
  • 85', Tchouameni A. ↓, Asencio R. ↑,
  • 86', Garcia G. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
  • 90+3', 2 - 1, Beier M. ⚽,
  • 90+4', 3 - 1, Mbappe K. ⚽, Guler A. (A),
  • 90+5', Huijsen D. 🟥,
  • 90+8', Mbappe K. 🟨,
  • 90+8', 3 - 2, Guirassy S. (Pen),

Chances of winning


Real Madrid
58.4%		Draw
22.5%		Borussia Dortmund
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60.1% 21% 18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.2% 20% 17.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)
  • Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
    •

    Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.63 ↑
    (1.58)    		 4.23 ↓
    (4.52)    		 5 ↓
    (5.05)    		 5%
    (5.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
    •
    What is the prediction for Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund?
  • Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 38 - 76%). Borussia D will win (votes: 5 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 14%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 64.2% – 87.8%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.75 - Real (votes: 6 - 100%).
    • AH -1 - Real (votes: 8 - 88.9%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 4.
    • Both teams have triumphed in their latest matches.
    • Recently, Real has had a series of home games.
    • In this match, Real is seen as the favorite.
    • There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Knee Injury) Camavinga E. (Groin Injury) Endrick (Hamstring Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Reinier (Inactive)
    • There will not play in Borussia D: Bellingham J. (Yellow Cards) Bueno G. (Injury) Can E. (Groin Injury) Chukwuemeka C. (Illness) Gittens J. (Illness) Kabar A. (International duty) Ozcan S. (Knee Injury) Schlotterbeck N. (Knee Injury) Watjen K. (International duty)
    • We predict that Real will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.
    • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Real won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:19. (average 2.2:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Real won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 2.8:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund were as follows:
    22.10.2024 Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund 5:2
    01.06.2024 Borussia Dortmund - Real Madrid 0:2
    Latest results of Real Madrid
    01.07.2025 Real Madrid - Juventus 1:0 ✺
    26.06.2025 Red Bull Salzburg - Real Madrid 0:3 ✺
    22.06.2025 Real Madrid - Pachuca 3:1 ✺
    18.06.2025 Real Madrid - Al-Hilal 1:1 ✺
    24.05.2025 Real Madrid - Real Sociedad 2:0 ✺
    Latest results of Borussia Dortmund
    01.07.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Monterrey 2:1 ✺
    25.06.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Ulsan HD 1:0 ✺
    21.06.2025 Mamelodi Sundowns - Borussia Dortmund 3:4 ✺
    17.06.2025 Fluminense - Borussia Dortmund 0:0 ✺
    17.05.2025 Borussia Dortmund - Holstein Kiel 3:0 ✺
    Draw
    Play Offs

    1/8-finals
    1Inter (E1)Fluminense (F2)0 : 2
    2Manchester City (G1)Al Hilal (H2)3 : 4
    3Palmeiras (A1)Botafogo RJ (B2)1 : 0
    4Benfica (C1)Chelsea (D2)1 : 4
    5PSG (B1)Inter Miami (A2)4 : 0
    6Flamengo RJ (D1)Bayern Munich (C2)2 : 4
    7Real Madrid (H1)Juventus (G2)1 : 0
    8Dortmund (F1)Monterrey (E2)2 : 1

    Quarter-finals
    1Fluminense (F2)Al Hilal (H2)2 : 1
    2Palmeiras (A1)Chelsea (D2)1 : 2
    3PSG (B1)Bayern Munich (C2)2 : 0
    4Real Madrid (H1)Dortmund (F1)3 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Fluminense (F2)Chelsea (D2)0 : 2
    2PSG (B1)Real Madrid (H1)4 : 0

    Final
    1Chelsea (D2)PSG (B1)
    Which TV channels are streaming of Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund?
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