Result
0:1
30/11/2025 at 08:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Bundesliga - Round 15
- Referee: Pfister D. (Aut)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Austria | Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1 |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 6 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.88 | 1.14 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (237/326) | 78% (348/449) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.88 | 1.14 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.67 | 0.89 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 9 | 7 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 73% (237/326) | 78% (348/449) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 38% (26/68) | 33% (14/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (52/90) | 64% (97/152) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (2/12) | 14% (3/22) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.69 | 0.82 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 29 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 6 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 88% (15/17) | 56% (15/27) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 15 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.89 | 0.67 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.11 | 0.67 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 11', Oermann T. 🟨,
- 27', Aiwu E. 🟨,
- 44', Vincze D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Aiwu E. ↓, Geyrhofer N. ↑,
- 54', Grgic L. ↓, Malone M. ↑,
- 54', Rozga F. ↓, Kiteishvili O. ↑,
- 59', Hoffmann M. ↓, Fridrikas L. ↑,
- 65', Lavalee D. ↓, Karic E. ↑,
- 74', Jatta S. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
- 79', Heil J. 🟨,
- 79', Kainz T. 🟨,
- 79', Hulsmann T. 🟨,
- 81', 0 - 1, Kiteishvili O. (Pen),
- 85', Kovacevic D. ↓, Fillafer M. ↑,
- 85', Spendlhofer L. ↓, Diarra Y. ↑,
- 85', Heil J. ↓, Mijic P. ↑,
- 89', Kainz T. ↓, Prokop D. ↑,
- 90+3', Malic A. 🟨,
- 90+6', Havel E. 🟨,
- 90+7', Schmid M. 🟥,
Chances of winning
Hartberg
24.9% | Draw
26.8% | Sturm Graz
48.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hartberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartberg than the current prediction. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
Hartberg - Sturm Graz Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.87 ↓
(3.95) |
3.48 ↓
(3.6) |
1.96 ↑
(1.85) |
5.5%
(7.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Hartberg - Sturm Graz?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Hartberg will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Sturm will win (votes: 16 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 54.1% – 91.3%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH -0.5 - Hartberg (3.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Sturm Graz will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 10 high ROI users predict this event. Hartberg (votes: 2 - 20%). Sturm (votes: 8 - 80%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: ))
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hartberg won 0.
- Hartberg is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Sturm is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Hartberg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Sturm is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Hartberg: Drew J.
(Back Injury)
Komposch P.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hartberg won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 23:33. (average 1.2:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Hartberg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.3:1.4).
How many head-to-head matches has Hartberg won against Sturm Graz?
Hartberg has won 0 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Sturm Graz won against Hartberg?
Sturm Graz has won 6 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Hartberg - Sturm Graz were as follows:
28.09.2025
Sturm Graz
-
Hartberg
1:0
09.11.2024
Hartberg
-
Sturm Graz
1:2
11.08.2024
Sturm Graz
-
Hartberg
2:0
05.05.2024
Sturm Graz
-
Hartberg
1:1
14.04.2024
Hartberg
-
Sturm Graz
1:3
Latest results of Hartberg
Latest results of Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Salzburg ✔ | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 42:25 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 20 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 29:24 | 5 | 34 |
| 3 | LASK | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 27:27 | 0 | 33 |
| 4 | Austria Vienna | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 30:28 | 2 | 32 |
| 5 | Hartberg | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28:23 | 5 | 31 |
| 6 | SK Rapid | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 24:24 | 0 | 29 |
| 7 | Altach | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 21:20 | 1 | 28 |
| 8 | Ried | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 25:26 | -1 | 28 |
| 9 | Wolfsberger AC | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 28:27 | 1 | 25 |
| 10 | Tirol | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 26:28 | -2 | 25 |
| 11 | Grazer AK ✔ | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 20:33 | -13 | 17 |
| 12 | BW Linz ✔ | 20 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 17:32 | -15 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )
Bundesliga (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Salzburg is Qualified for Bundesliga (Championship Group )
Grazer AK is Bundesliga (Relegation Group )
BW Linz is Bundesliga (Relegation Group )
