Result
0:1
17/12/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Round 18
- Referee: Gianforte N. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4 |
 Ukraine | Sport 3 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 1.54 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (193/279) | 79% (304/385) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Red Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.58 | 1.54 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.16 | 2.08 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 7 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 20 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 24 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (193/279) | 79% (304/385) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (25/61) | 57% (42/74) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 64% (83/130) | 66% (63/95) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 31% (5/16) | 32% (6/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 1.38 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 15 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 24 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 72% (18/25) | 53% (10/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 56 | 62 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.08 | 0.16 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.08 | 0.16 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 12', Vujevic D. 🟨,
- 23', Grgic A. 🟨,
- 35', Mai L. 🟨,
- 40', Ligue J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Mai L. ↓, Kelvin D. ↑,
- 46', Ligue J. ↓, Volken N. ↑,
- 60', Emmanuel U. ↓, Reverson D. ↑,
- 60', Koutsias G. ↓, Steffen R. ↑,
- 60', Dos Santos D. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
- 64', Tsawa C. ↓, Krasniqi B. ↑,
- 70', Marques M. ↓, Brault-Guillard Z. ↑,
- 77', Keny P. P. 🟨,
- 90+1', 0 - 1, Behrens K. ⚽, Bislimi U. (A),
- 90+3', Phaeton M. ↓, Odera D. ↑,
- 90+3', Zuber S. ↓, Perea J. ↑,
- 90+5', Odera D. 🟥,
- 90+7', Saipi A. 🟨,
- 90+9', Cimignani Y. ↓, Maslarov I. ↑,
Chances of winning
Zürich
34.3% | Draw
25.6% | Lugano
40.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Zürich has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zürich than the current prediction. (-2.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+2.6%)
Zürich - Lugano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.74 ↓
(2.86) |
3.65 ↑
(3.58) |
2.35 ↑
(2.33) |
6.5%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Zürich - Lugano?
Users Predictions:
17 users predict this event. Zürich will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%). Lugano will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zürich: 17.8% – 64.6%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 7 high ROI users predict this event. Zürich (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Zürich (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +0.25 - Zürich (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Zürich (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 in the zone Super League (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zürich won 2.
- Zürich is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Lugano has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Lugano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Zürich: Comenencia L.
(Inactive)
Palacio N.
(Injury)
- There will not play in Lugano: Alioski E.
(Foot Injury)
Belhadj M.
(Yellow Cards)
Bottani M.
(Health problems)
von Ballmoos D.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Lugano: Marques M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zürich won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 30:22. (average 1.5:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Zürich won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 2:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Zürich won against Lugano?
Zürich has won 4 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Zürich?
Lugano has won 7 of their last 12 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Zürich - Lugano were as follows:
18.10.2025
Lugano
-
Zürich
1:0
02.03.2025
Lugano
-
Zürich
0:3
24.11.2024
Lugano
-
Zürich
4:1
06.10.2024
Zürich
-
Lugano
1:1
20.05.2024
Zürich
-
Lugano
2:1
Swiss Super League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun ✔ | 26 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 60:28 | 32 | 61 |
| 2 | St. Gallen | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 51:32 | 19 | 47 |
| 3 | Lugano | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 43:31 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | Sion | 26 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 39:30 | 9 | 40 |
| 5 | Basel | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 39:34 | 5 | 40 |
| 6 | Young Boys | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 52:52 | 0 | 36 |
| 7 | Luzern | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 52:49 | 3 | 33 |
| 8 | Zurich | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 39:50 | -11 | 31 |
| 9 | Lausanne | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 39:42 | -3 | 30 |
| 10 | Servette | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 44:51 | -7 | 28 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 26 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 34:47 | -13 | 21 |
| 12 | Winterthur | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 29:75 | -46 | 14 |
Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )
Super League (Relegation Group: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Thun is Qualified for Super League (Championship Group )
