Result
0:1
25/04/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Super League - Championship Group - Round 34
- Referee: Cibelli L. (Sui)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Albania | SuperSport 4 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 9, Blue Sport 9, Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, RSI La 2, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Play, SRF Play, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 Ukraine | Sport 2 |
 World | Sport 2 Baltic |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 2.48 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (239/315) | 84% (338/401) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 2.48 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.27 | 2.41 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 28 | 38 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (239/315) | 84% (338/401) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (31/58) | 45% (21/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (73/125) | 75% (92/123) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (3/19) | 20% (4/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.03 | 2.29 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 22 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 89% (8/9) | 87% (13/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 36 | 46 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 24 | 44 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.41 | 0.27 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.41 | 0.27 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 5', Montolio G. ↓, Dahler L. ↑,
- 33', Heule M. 🟨,
- 36', Papadopoulos A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Dos Santos D. ↓, Belhadj M. ↑,
- 46', Fehr F. 🟨,
- 53', Zanotti M. 🟨,
- 57', Koutsias G. ↓, Behrens K. ↑,
- 62', Fehr F. ↓, Matoshi V. ↑,
- 62', Imeri K. ↓, Meichtry F. ↑,
- 74', Ibayi C. ↓, Labeau B. ↑,
- 74', Kait M. ↓, Dursun F. ↑,
- 77', Cimignani Y. ↓, Alioski E. ↑,
- 81', Belhadj M. 🟨,
- 88', Steffen R. ↓, Bottani M. ↑,
- 88', Bislimi U. ↓, Pihlstrom E. ↑,
- 90+5', Burki M. 🟨,
- 90+7', 0 - 1, Alioski E. (Penalty Awarded),
- 90+10', Alioski E. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Thun
48.5% | Draw
24.8% | Lugano
26.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Thun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thun than the current prediction. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-2.9%)
Thun - Lugano Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.93 ↑
(1.8) |
3.81 ↑
(3.7) |
3.52 ↓
(3.75) |
6.4%
(9.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Thun - Lugano?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Thun will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Lugano will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Super League (Championship Group: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Thun won 2.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Lugano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Thun could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Thun: Balaruban A.
(Inactive)
Reichmuth N.
(Injury)
Ziswiler N.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Lugano: Cassano C.
(Knee Injury)
Kelvin D.
(Yellow Cards)
von Ballmoos D.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Thun: Heule M.
(Injury)
Imeri K.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Lugano: Mai L.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Thun won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 31:33. (average 1.6:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, Thun won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 1.7:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Thun won against Lugano?
Thun has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Lugano won against Thun?
Lugano has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Thun - Lugano were as follows:
04.04.2026
Lugano
-
Thun
1:0
22.11.2025
Thun
-
Lugano
0:1
27.07.2025
Lugano
-
Thun
1:2
11.07.2025
Lugano
-
Thun
2:4
Swiss Super League Table
Championship Group | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Thun | 34 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 75:38 | 37 | 74 |
| 2 | St. Gallen | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 66:41 | 25 | 63 |
| 3 | Lugano | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 51:38 | 13 | 60 |
| 4 | Sion | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 53:35 | 18 | 55 |
| 5 | Basel | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 51:47 | 4 | 53 |
| 6 | Young Boys | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 66:62 | 4 | 48 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
