St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

27/01/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg).

Bundesliga - Round 16
Referee: Exner F. (Ger)

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
1.45	1.09
Ball possession
46%	54%
Total shots
7	12
Shots on target
2	5
Big chances
2	3
Corner kicks
4	3
Passes
77% (396/511)	84% (511/605)
Yellow cards
0	1
Expected goals (xG)
1.45	1.09
xG on target (xGOT)
1.12	1.59
Total shots
7	12
Shots on target
2	5
Shots off target
3	5
Blocked shots
2	2
Shots inside the box
3	9
Shots outside the box
4	3
Hit the woodwork
0	1
Big chances
2	3
Corner kicks
4	3
Touches in opposition box
18	35
Accurate through passes
1	1
Offsides
5	3
Free kicks
8	6
Passes
77% (396/511)	84% (511/605)
Long passes
39% (21/54)	39% (20/51)
Passes in final third
59% (74/126)	70% (105/149)
Crosses
14% (2/14)	33% (3/9)
Expected assists (xA)
0.57	1.72
Throw ins
20	22
Fouls
6	8
Tackles
69% (18/26)	64% (7/11)
Duels won
55	40
Clearances
20	31
Interceptions
18	10
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
5	1
xGOT faced
1.59	1.12
Goals prevented
0.59	0.12

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Baumgartner C. 🟨,
64', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Harder C. ↑,
66', 0 - 1, Diomande Y. ⚽,
67', Jones R.J. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
76', Sinani D. ↓, Pereira Lage M. ↑,
76', Sands J. ↓, Irvine J. ↑,
76', Fujita J. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
85', Nusa A. ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
85', Baumgartner C. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
88', Saliakas M. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Kaars M. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Diomande Y. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,

Chances of winning

St. Pauli
20.1%

Draw
26.4%

RB Leipzig
53.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

25.4%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

26.5%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

RB Leipzig has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

St. Pauli - RB Leipzig Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.73 ↑ (3.83)	3.62 ↓ (3.75)	1.78 ↓ (1.91)	4.8% (5.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for St. Pauli - RB Leipzig?

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH +0.5 - St. Pauli (2.10) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 6 - 66.7%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - St. Pauli (3.37) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DNB - RB Leipzig (1.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - RB Leipzig (1.96) (votes: 4 - 66.7%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1.5 - RB Leipzig (1.04) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.75 - RB Leipzig (1.02) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH -1 - RB Leipzig (1.21) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH -2 - RB Leipzig (1.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - St. Pauli (2.03) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - RB Leipzig (1.22) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - RB Leipzig (1.11) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - RB Leipzig (1.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - RB Leipzig (1.05) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - RB Leipzig (3.15) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - RB Leipzig (1.51) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1 - RB Leipzig (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (58 of 67 users predict this - 86.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.41% – 94.73%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): RB Leipzig will win (35 of 41 users predict this - 85.37%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 78 high ROI users predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 10 - 12.8%). RB Leipzig (votes: 65 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 3.8%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.

Preview Facts

Postponed due to bad weather.
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2.
St. Pauli is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).
RB Leipzig has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
RB Leipzig may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, RB Leipzig is the team to beat.
There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)
There will not play in RB Leipzig: Bakayoko J. (Muscle Injury) Banzuzi E. (Muscle Injury) Diomande Y. (International duty) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Henrichs B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nusa A. (Ankle Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury)
In the last 7 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 0.9:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 0.7:0).

How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against RB Leipzig?

St. Pauli has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has RB Leipzig won against St. Pauli?

RB Leipzig has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - RB Leipzig were as follows:

09.02.2025 RB Leipzig - St. Pauli 2:0

29.10.2024 RB Leipzig - St. Pauli 4:2

22.09.2024 St. Pauli - RB Leipzig 0:0

Latest results of St. Pauli

23.01.2026 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 0:0 ✺

17.01.2026 Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli 3:2 ✺

14.01.2026 Wolfsburg - St. Pauli 2:1 ✺

04.01.2026 St. Pauli - Werder Bremen 0:0 ✺

21.12.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 0:0 ✺

Latest results of RB Leipzig

24.01.2026 Heidenheim - RB Leipzig 0:3 ✺

17.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich 1:5 ✺

14.01.2026 RB Leipzig - Freiburg 2:0 ✺

20.12.2025 RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen 1:3 ✺

12.12.2025 Union Berlin - RB Leipzig 3:1 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	26	21	4	1	93:25	68	67
2	Dortmund	26	17	7	2	55:26	29	58
3	Hoffenheim	26	15	5	6	54:34	20	50
4	Stuttgart	26	15	5	6	51:34	17	50
5	RB Leipzig	26	14	5	7	48:35	13	47
6	Bayer Leverkusen	26	13	6	7	49:33	16	45
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	26	10	8	8	49:49	0	38
8	Freiburg	26	9	7	10	37:43	-6	34
9	Union Berlin	26	8	7	11	31:42	-11	31
10	Augsburg	26	9	4	13	31:45	-14	31
11	Hamburger SV	26	7	9	10	29:37	-8	30
12	B. Monchengladbach	26	7	7	12	30:43	-13	28
13	Mainz	26	6	9	11	31:41	-10	27
14	FC Koln	26	6	7	13	35:44	-9	25
15	Werder Bremen	26	6	7	13	29:47	-18	25
16	St. Pauli	26	6	6	14	23:42	-19	24
17	Wolfsburg	26	5	6	15	35:56	-21	21
18	Heidenheim	26	3	5	18	24:58	-34	14

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga