Result
1:1
10/12/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Championship - Round 20
- Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.14 | 1.02 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 55% | 45% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (242/341) | 64% (178/276) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.14 | 1.02 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.16 | 0.50 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 31 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 71% (242/341) | 64% (178/276) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 32% (23/71) | 37% (24/65) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 58% (70/121) | 51% (46/91) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (5/23) | 26% (5/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.23 | 0.90 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 23 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 9 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 46% (6/13) | 59% (13/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 70 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 45 | 69 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.16 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.50 | 1.16 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 3', Elder C. 🟨,
- 19', Thompson L. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 67', Brereton Diaz B. ↓, Salvesen L. ↑,
- 67', Weimann A. ↓, Brewster R. ↑,
- 68', Bangura-Williams R. ↓, Emakhu A. ↑,
- 78', Azeez F. 🟨,
- 81', 0 - 1, Clarke M. (Own goal),
- 85', Langas S. ↓, Blackett-Taylor C. ↑,
- 86', Elder C. ↓, Jackson K. ↑,
- 86', Thompson L. ↓, Adams E. ↑,
- 89', 1 - 1, Cooper J. (Own goal),
- 89', Azeez F. ↓, McNamara D. ↑,
- 90', Doughty A. ↓, Bryan J. ↑,
- 90+2', McNamara D. 🟨,
- 90+2', Ballo T. ↓, Langstaff M. ↑,
- 90+6', Langstaff M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Derby County
35.1% | Draw
30.5% | Millwall
34.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Derby County - Millwall Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.7 ↑
(2.32) |
3.1 ↓
(3.2) |
2.76 ↓
(3.18) |
5.6%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Derby County - Millwall?
Users Predictions:
29 users predict this event. Derby will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). Millwall will win (votes: 12 - 41.4%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 37.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millwall: 23.5% – 59.3%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 5 high ROI users predict this event. Derby (votes: 1 - 20%). Millwall (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby won 0.
- Derby has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Millwall is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Millwall may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Derby: Beck O.
(Inactive)
Johnston M.
(Hamstring Injury)
Morris C.
(Injury)
Ozoh D.
(Injury)
Travis L.
(Calf Injury)
- There will not play in Millwall: Coburn J.
(Muscle Injury)
Leonard R.
(Calf Injury)
Luongo M.
(Knee Injury)
Mazou-Sacko D.
(Knee Injury)
Smallbone W.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Derby: Brewster R.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Millwall: Jensen L.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Mitchell B.
(Hamstring Injury)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Derby won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:19. (average 1.1:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Derby won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.6:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Derby County won against Millwall?
Derby County has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Millwall won against Derby County?
Millwall has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Derby County - Millwall were as follows:
22.02.2025
Derby County
-
Millwall
0:1
19.10.2024
Millwall
-
Derby County
1:1
Latest results of Derby County
Latest results of Millwall
English League Championship Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Coventry | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 54:25 | 29 | 51 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 33:25 | 8 | 43 |
| 3 | Ipswich | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 40:23 | 17 | 41 |
| 4 | Hull | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 40:37 | 3 | 41 |
| 5 | Millwall | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 27:32 | -5 | 39 |
| 6 | Watford | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 34:29 | 5 | 38 |
| 7 | Preston | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 31:25 | 6 | 37 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 33:27 | 6 | 36 |
| 9 | QPR | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 34:37 | -3 | 35 |
| 10 | Stoke | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 29:23 | 6 | 34 |
| 11 | Wrexham | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 34:31 | 3 | 34 |
| 12 | Leicester | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 34:34 | 0 | 34 |
| 13 | Southampton | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 38:34 | 4 | 32 |
| 14 | Derby | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 0 | 32 |
| 15 | Birmingham | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 32:31 | 1 | 31 |
| 16 | West Brom | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 28:32 | -4 | 31 |
| 17 | Sheffield Utd | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 33:37 | -4 | 29 |
| 18 | Swansea | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 25:31 | -6 | 29 |
| 19 | Blackburn | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 22:26 | -4 | 27 |
| 20 | Charlton | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 22:29 | -7 | 27 |
| 21 | Portsmouth | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 21:30 | -9 | 25 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 24:33 | -9 | 22 |
| 23 | Norwich | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 26:36 | -10 | 21 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 23 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 18:45 | -27 | -7 |
Promotion ~ Premier League
Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ League One
