Result
1:1
11/04/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 5
- Referee: Zatula A. (Kaz)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Kazakhstan | Sport+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 13 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 13', 1 - 0, Milovanovic U. ⚽, Ndiaye P. (A),
- 19', 1 - 1, Satpaev D. ⚽, Jorginho (A),
- 35', Guerra L. 🟨,
- 40', Marochkin A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 53', Tagybergen A. 🟨,
- 56', Zhumashev Z. 🟨,
- 61', Edmilson ↓, Shirobokov A. ↑,
- 61', Mrynskiy A. ↓, Tapalov E. ↑,
- 63', Oksanen J. 🟨,
- 73', Cavnic N. 🟨,
- 74', Zhumashev Z. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
- 74', Guerra L. ↓, Marat D. ↑,
- 75', Sadybekov A. ↓, Kasabulat D. ↑,
- 75', Jukkola O. ↓, Ricardinho ↑,
- 77', Cavnic N. ↓, Glushchenkov K. ↑,
- 87', Jorginho ↓, Tuyakbaev A. ↑,
- 88', Tagybergen A. ↓, Cisse A. ↑,
- 88', Milovanovic U. ↓, Hebaj R. ↑,
- 90', Marat D. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Tobol Kostanay
26% | Draw
27.7% | Kairat
46.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tobol Kostanay's form might have worsened.Kairat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kairat's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+6.6%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tobol Kostanay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-9.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kairat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Tobol Kostanay - Kairat Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.53 ↑
(2.79) |
3.31 ↑
(3.04) |
1.98 ↓
(2.5) |
9%
(8.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Tobol Kostanay - Kairat?
Users Predictions:
Kairat will win
(7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kairat will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ First League and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 2.
- Recent form of Tobol has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Kairat is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Tobol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, Tobol has had a series of away games.
- Kairat might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 36:41. (average 1.8:2.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tobol won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 1.9:2.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Tobol Kostanay won against Kairat?
Tobol Kostanay has won 3 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Kairat won against Tobol Kostanay?
Kairat has won 4 of their last 8 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tobol Kostanay - Kairat were as follows:
28.02.2026
Kairat
-
Tobol Kostanay
2:3
26.07.2025
Tobol Kostanay
-
Kairat
1:3
27.04.2025
Kairat
-
Tobol Kostanay
2:1
25.08.2024
Kairat
-
Tobol Kostanay
2:2
15.06.2024
Tobol Kostanay
-
Kairat
1:0
Latest results of Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Yelimay Semey | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8:3 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Okzhetpes | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9:5 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Ordabasy | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8:4 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Kyzylzhar | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | FC Astana | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 7 | Ulytau | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Atyrau | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Aktobe | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7:7 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Ertis Pavlodar | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7:7 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1:5 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Zhenis | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:8 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Altai | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | -3 | 2 |
| 15 | Tobol | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | Kaspij Aktau | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2:7 | -5 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ First League
