Result
1:2
29/04/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Kazakhstan Cup - 1/8-finals
- Referee: Tevyashov D. (Kaz)
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 65% | 35% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 15 | 19 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 6', Bakitzhanov A. 🟨,
- 7', 0 - 1, Talal A. ⚽, Marat D. (A),
- 36', Abdurasulov A. 🟨,
- 40', Ustimenko D. ↓, Busurmanov S. ↑,
- 42', Usenov D. 🟨,
- 45+2', Usenov D. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Bakitzhanov A. ↓, Cisse A. ↑,
- 46', Abdurasulov A. ↓, Abrayev M. ↑,
- 53', Karaman D. 🟨,
- 57', Kalmyrza M. ↓, Asrankulov R. ↑,
- 57', Talal A. ↓, Zhumashev Z. ↑,
- 67', Serikov N. ↓, Islamkhan B. ↑,
- 68', Tokenov T. ↓, Bartolec K. ↑,
- 72', Zuev A. ↓, Zhagorov N. ↑,
- 73', Token A. ↓, Kalaica B. ↑,
- 80', 1 - 1, Anuarov S. ⚽, Bartolec K. (A),
- 81', Nurmukhambet N. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
- 87', 1 - 2, Zhumashev Z. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Astana
40.3% | Draw
28.9% | Tobol Kostanay
30.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Astana's form might have worsened.Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Tobol Kostanay's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+10.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Astana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-8.2%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Tobol Kostanay, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Astana - Tobol Kostanay Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.39 ↑
(1.83) |
3.33 ↓
(3.36) |
3.12 ↓
(3.91) |
3.9%
(10.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Astana - Tobol Kostanay?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Astana will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tobol will win (votes: 10 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tobol: 42.8% – 90.6%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobol (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- DC - Tobol (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobol (votes: 3 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Astana won 2.
- Astana has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Tobol is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Tobol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Astana is a strong favorite.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Astana won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:21. (average 1.1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Astana won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.5:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Astana won against Tobol Kostanay?
Astana has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tobol Kostanay won against Astana?
Tobol Kostanay has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Astana - Tobol Kostanay were as follows:
20.03.2026
Astana
-
Tobol Kostanay
2:0
19.09.2025
Tobol Kostanay
-
Astana
2:3
10.05.2025
Astana
-
Tobol Kostanay
1:3
03.11.2024
Tobol Kostanay
-
Astana
1:0
08.05.2024
Tobol Kostanay
-
Astana
1:0
Latest results of Tobol Kostanay
Draw
20261/16-finals| 1 | Akademiya Ontustik | Ordabasy | 2 : 4 |
| 2 | FC Batyr | Kaspij Aktau | 0 : 4 |
| 3 | Jas Qyran | Atyrau | 0 : 4 |
| 4 | Karshiga | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 0 : 1 |
| 5 | Arys | Aktobe | 0 : 4 |
| 6 | Turan | Yelimay Semey | 1 : 4 |
| 7 | Jelaev Nan | Altai | 0 : 2 |
| 8 | Taraz | Ulytau | 0 : 1 |
| 9 | Talas | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 0 : 2 |
| 10 | Jaiyq | Kairat Almaty | 1 : 3 |
| 11 | BKS | FC Astana | 1 : 2 |
| 12 | Ansat | Tobol | 0 : 8 |
| 13 | Shakhter Karagandy | Okzhetpes | 2 : 3 |
| 14 | Chromtau | Zhenis | 1 : 4 |
| 15 | SD Family | Ertis Pavlodar | |
| 16 | Khan Tengri | Kyzylzhar | 0 : 1 |
1/8-finals| 1 | Ordabasy | Kaspij Aktau | 3 : 0 |
| 2 | Atyrau | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 0 : 2 |
| 3 | Aktobe | Yelimay Semey | 2 : 1 |
| 4 | Altai | Ulytau | 4 : 3 |
| 5 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | Kairat Almaty | 2 : 1 |
| 6 | FC Astana | Tobol | 1 : 2 |
| 7 | Okzhetpes | Zhenis | 2 : 3 |
| 8 | Ertis Pavlodar | Kyzylzhar | 1 : 2 |
Quarter-finals| 1 | Ordabasy | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | |
| 2 | Aktobe | Altai | |
| 3 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | Tobol | |
| 4 | Zhenis | Kyzylzhar | |
Semi-finalsFinal
