Hoffenheim vs St. Pauli – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga
Result
0:1
28/02/2026 at 09:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 24
  • Referee: Aytekin D. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaStarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
albaniaAlbaniaTring Sport 3
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaSky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
brazilBrazilCanal GOAT
bulgariaBulgariaPlay Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada, OneSoccer
chinaChinaMigu, QQ Sports
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 3, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
franceFrancebeIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
germanyGermanyDAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
greeceGreeceNova Sports 5
hong-kongHong-kongbeIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
icelandIcelandViaplay
indiaIndiaSony LIV, Vision+
indonesiaIndonesiaK-Vision
japanJapanDAZN Japan
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
mexicoMexicoIzzi TV, Sky Sport
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
north-central-americaNorth-central-americaSky Sports Norte
norwayNorwayTV2 Play, Viaplay
pakistanPakistanTapmad
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
polandPolandEleven Sports 2
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 2
russiaRussiaOkko Sport
saudi-arabiaSaudi-arabiaMBC Shahid
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 6
singaporeSingaporebeIN SPORTS MAX
slovakiaSlovakiaNova Sport 3, Sport TV2, Voyo
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport 1
switzerlandSwitzerlandSky Sport Bundesliga 4
thailandThailandbeIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 4
turkeyTurkeyS Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
vietnamVietnamTV 360
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
2.720.78
Ball possession
65%35%
Total shots
2111
Shots on target
113
Big chances
41
Corner kicks
103
Passes
80% (456/567)68% (208/305)
Yellow cards
12
Expected goals (xG)
2.720.78
xG on target (xGOT)
2.750.90
Total shots
2111
Shots on target
113
Shots off target
95
Blocked shots
13
Shots inside the box
168
Shots outside the box
53
Hit the woodwork
10
Headed goals
01
Big chances
41
Corner kicks
103
Touches in opposition box
4117
Accurate through passes
20
Offsides
41
Free kicks
713
Passes
80% (456/567)68% (208/305)
Long passes
54% (33/61)25% (19/75)
Passes in final third
60% (121/201)51% (45/89)
Crosses
39% (12/31)29% (4/14)
Expected assists (xA)
2.800.64
Throw ins
2624
Fouls
137
Tackles
91% (10/11)57% (8/14)
Duels won
5554
Clearances
3651
Interceptions
1111
Errors leading to shot
01
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
211
xGOT faced
0.902.75
Goals prevented
-0.102.75

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 21', Kabak O. 🟨,
  • 38', Sinani D. 🟨,
  • 45+4', 0 - 1, Pereira Lage M. ⚽, Saliakas M. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Mets K. ↓, Ritzka L. ↑,
  • 62', Burger W. ↓, Prass A. ↑,
  • 74', Hranac R. ↓, Bernardo ↑,
  • 74', Kramaric A. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
  • 75', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
  • 80', Fujita J. 🟨,
  • 83', Ilzer C. 🟨,
  • 86', Hajdari A. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
  • 88', Sinani D. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,

Chances of winning


Hoffenheim
62.2%		Draw
22.2%		St. Pauli
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
60.2% 20.8% 18.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9% 20.2% 18.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)
  • St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+2.9%)
    •

    Hoffenheim - St. Pauli Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.54 ↓
    (1.58)    		 4.28 ↓
    (4.57)    		 6.15 ↑
    (5.03)    		 4.7%
    (5.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Hoffenheim - St. Pauli?
  • Users Predictions: 41 users predict this event. Hoffenheim will win (votes: 33 - 80.5%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 3 - 7.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 12.2%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 68.4% – 92.6%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -1 - Hoffenheim (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • DC - Hoffenheim (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • AH -1.5 - Hoffenheim (2.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.75 - Hoffenheim (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Hoffenheim will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 11 high ROI users predict this event. Hoffenheim (votes: 11 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).
    • Hoffenheim is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • St. Pauli's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • In this match, Hoffenheim is the undisputed favorite.
    • There will not play in Hoffenheim: Bebou I. (Illness) Campbell C. (Ankle Injury) Frees K. (Illness) Hlozek A. (Calf Injury) Machida K. (Knee Injury) Moerstedt M. (Illness)
    • There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Jones R.J. (Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)
    • In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Hoffenheim won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).
    • Including home match between the teams, Hoffenheim won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Hoffenheim - St. Pauli were as follows:
    28.10.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 3:2
    19.10.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 0:3
    14.03.2025 St. Pauli - Hoffenheim 1:0
    02.11.2024 Hoffenheim - St. Pauli 0:2
    Latest results of Hoffenheim
    21.02.2026 Köln - Hoffenheim 2:2 ✺
    14.02.2026 Hoffenheim - Freiburg 3:0 ✺
    08.02.2026 Bayern Munich - Hoffenheim 5:1 ✺
    31.01.2026 Hoffenheim - Union Berlin 3:1 ✺
    27.01.2026 Werder Bremen - Hoffenheim 0:2 ✺
    Latest results of St. Pauli
    22.02.2026 St. Pauli - Werder Bremen 2:1 ✺
    14.02.2026 Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli 4:0 ✺
    07.02.2026 St. Pauli - Stuttgart 2:1 ✺
    03.02.2026 Bayer Leverkusen - St. Pauli 3:0 ✺
    31.01.2026 Augsburg - St. Pauli 2:1 ✺
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich24203188:236563
    2Dortmund24157251:252652
    3Hoffenheim24144649:311846
    4Stuttgart24144648:321646
    5RB Leipzig24135646:331344
    6Bayer Leverkusen23124744:291540
    7Eintracht Frankfurt2497848:49-134
    8Freiburg2496934:39-533
    9Augsburg24941130:41-1131
    10Union Berlin24771029:38-928
    11Hamburger SV2368926:34-826
    12B. Monchengladbach24671127:39-1225
    13FC Koln24661233:41-824
    14Mainz24581127:39-1223
    15St. Pauli24651323:40-1723
    16Werder Bremen24571225:44-1922
    17Wolfsburg24551433:53-2020
    18Heidenheim24351622:53-3114

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga

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