Celje vs Lugano – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football UEFA Europa Conference League Celje - Lugano
Result
2:4
14/08/2025 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Martinez J. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
sloveniaSloveniaSport TV1
switzerlandSwitzerlandRSI La 2
ukraineUkraineSport 1, Sport 3
worldWorldSport 1 Baltic

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.452.83
Ball Possession
53%47%
Total shots
2215
Shots on target
56
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
22
Passes
89% (355/401)86% (304/354)
Yellow Cards
13
Expected Goals (xG)
1.452.83
xG on target (xGOT)
0.913.74
Total shots
2215
Shots on target
56
Shots off target
92
Blocked Shots
87
Shots inside the Box
1310
Shots outside the Box
95
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
13
Corner Kicks
22
Touches in opposition box
3123
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
21
Free Kicks
1417
Passes
89% (355/401)86% (304/354)
Long passes
67% (33/49)62% (29/47)
Passes in final third
77% (93/121)72% (69/96)
Crosses
20% (3/15)35% (6/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.861.07
Throw-ins
139
Fouls
1714
Tackles
57% (4/7)76% (13/17)
Duels won
3347
Clearances
1116
Interceptions
74
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
23
xGOT faced
3.740.91
Goals prevented
-0.26-1.09

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 13', 0 - 1, Grgic A. (Pen),
  • 22', 1 - 1, Kovacevic F. , Kvesic M. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 3)
  • 46', Kelvin D. , Brault-Guillard Z. ,
  • 55', Duville-Parsemain A. , Dos Santos D. ,
  • 58', Steffen R. 🟨,
  • 59', Karnicnik Z. 🟨,
  • 62', Grgic A. 🟨,
  • 65', Belhadj M. , Mahou H. ,
  • 65', Pihlstrom E. , Bislimi U. ,
  • 67', 2 - 1, Kvesic M. , Avdyli M. (A),
  • 70', 2 - 2, Papadopoulos A. ,
  • 71', Karnicnik Z. , Boben M. ,
  • 71', Juanjo Nieto , Daniel P. ,
  • 74', Bislimi U. 🟨,
  • 78', Iosifov N. , Vidovic I. ,
  • 78', Sturm D. , Chidi A. ,
  • 78', Koutsias G. , Behrens K. ,
  • 81', 2 - 3, Steffen R. , Dos Santos D. (A),
  • 82', Kvesic M. , Hrka D. ,
  • 85', 2 - 4, Alioski E. (Pen),

Chances of winning


Celje
40%
Draw
26.9%
Lugano
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
47.6% 25.3% 27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2% 24.5% 26.2%

Celje - Lugano Odds

1 X 2 Marga
Avarage Now
(Initially)
2.32
(1.94)
3.52
(3.65)
2.91
(3.41)
6%
(8.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Celje - Lugano?
  • Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Celje will win (votes: 10 - 55.6%). Lugano will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.6%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Celje: 32.6%78.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 5-0. 2nd leg.
    • Celje is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Lugano's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Celje could have a small edge in this match.
    • We predict that Celje will win today's game, with odds of 2.12.
    • In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Celje won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:5. (average 3.7:1.7).
    • Including home match between the teams, Celje won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Celje - Lugano were as follows:
    07.08.2025 Lugano - Celje 0:5
    13.03.2025 Lugano - Celje 5:5
    06.03.2025 Celje - Lugano 1:0
    Latest results of Celje
    10.08.2025 Celje - Mura 3:0
    07.08.2025 Lugano - Celje 0:5
    03.08.2025 Olimpija Ljubljana - Celje 0:5
    31.07.2025 AEK Larnaca - Celje 2:1
    27.07.2025 Celje - Radomlje 2:0
    Latest results of Lugano
    10.08.2025 Lugano - Basel 3:1
    07.08.2025 Lugano - Celje 0:5
    03.08.2025 Sion - Lugano 4:0
    31.07.2025 CFR Cluj - Lugano 1:0
    27.07.2025 Lugano - Thun 1:2
    UEFA Europa Conference League Table
    League phase
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Samsunspor33007:079
    2Celje33007:259
    3Mainz33004:139
    4AEK Larnaca32105:057
    5Lausanne32105:147
    6Rayo Vallecano32107:437
    7Strasbourg32105:327
    8Fiorentina32016:246
    9Crystal Palace32015:236
    10Shakhtar Donetsk32016:426
    11KuPS31204:225
    12Rakow31203:125
    13Drita31203:215
    14Jagiellonia31203:215
    15AEK Athens FC31118:444
    16Sparta Prague31114:224
    17Noah31113:304
    18Rijeka31112:204
    19Sigma Olomouc31113:4-14
    20Univ. Craiova31112:3-14
    21Shkendija31112:3-14
    22Lincoln Red Imps31113:7-44
    23Lech Poznan31027:613
    24Dyn. Kyiv31026:513
    25Legia31023:4-13
    26Zrinjski31025:7-23
    27AZ Alkmaar31022:7-53
    28Hacken30213:4-12
    29Omonia30212:3-12
    30Shelbourne30120:2-21
    31Shamrock Rovers30122:7-51
    32Breidablik30120:5-51
    33Aberdeen30122:9-71
    34Slovan Bratislava30032:6-40
    35Hamrun30030:5-50
    36SK Rapid30031:8-70

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