Result
14/03/2026 at 11:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liiga
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | MTV Katsomo+ |
 Sweden | TV4 Play |
Chances of winning
TPS
47.4% | Draw
23.4% | Ässät
29.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
TPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)Ässät has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for TPS than the current prediction. (+4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ässät than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
TPS - Ässät Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.95 ↓
(2.07) |
3.93 ↓
(4.03) |
3.2 ↑
(2.94) |
7.9%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 4.75
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 13 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- Ässät is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TPS won 1.
- Recent form of TPS has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Ässät has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Ässät may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
- TPS might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, TPS won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 51:54. (average 2.6:2.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, TPS won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 2.8:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has TPS won against Ässät?
TPS has won 12 of their last 25 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Ässät won against TPS?
Ässät has won 13 of their last 25 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between TPS - Ässät were as follows:
13.03.2026
Ässät
-
TPS
6:2
15.11.2025
Ässät
-
TPS
2:1
14.11.2025
TPS
-
Ässät
3:4
04.09.2025
Ässät
-
TPS
4:1
15.08.2025
TPS
-
Ässät
3:1
Finnish SM-liiga Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | WO | LO | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Tappara ✔ | 58 | 35 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 220:140 | 116 |
| 2 | KooKoo ✔ | 58 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 206:149 | 109 |
| 3 | SaiPa ✔ | 58 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 197:154 | 109 |
| 4 | Ilves | 58 | 28 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 181:147 | 104 |
| 5 | JYP | 58 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 194:170 | 103 |
| 6 | Lukko | 58 | 27 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 175:151 | 101 |
| 7 | KalPa | 58 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 174:170 | 100 |
| 8 | Assat ✔ | 58 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 161:158 | 91 |
| 9 | Kiekko-Espoo ✔ | 59 | 22 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 154:155 | 87 |
| 10 | IFK Helsinki ✔ | 58 | 23 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 140:179 | 82 |
| 11 | Pelicans ✔ | 58 | 19 | 9 | 7 | 23 | 133:151 | 82 |
| 12 | Hameenlinna | 58 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 140:161 | 73 |
| 13 | TPS Turku | 58 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 136:168 | 71 |
| 14 | Jukurit | 58 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 128:161 | 64 |
| 15 | Karpat | 58 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 168:191 | 63 |
| 16 | Vaasan Sport | 59 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 38 | 107:209 | 40 |
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liiga (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Tappara is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
KooKoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
SaiPa is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Assat is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Kiekko-Espoo is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
IFK Helsinki is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Pelicans is Qualified for Liiga (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
