Independência vs Grêmio Atlético Sampaio – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
3:2
29/04/2026 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Norte - Round 5

Match Stats

Ball possession
50%50%
Total shots
00
Shots on target
32
Corner kicks
14
Total shots
00
Shots on target
32
Shots off target
00
Corner kicks
14

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 11', 1 - 0, ,
  • 2nd Half (2 - 2)
  • 58', 2 - 0, ,
  • 61', 2 - 1, ,
  • 81', 2 - 2, ,
  • 82', 3 - 2, ,

Chances of winning


Independência
46.5%
Draw
27.1%
Grêmio Atlético Sampaio
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.7% 27.4% 30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2% 26.4% 31.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Independência has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
  • Grêmio Atlético Sampaio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independência than the current prediction. (-5.3%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independência that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Atlético Sampaio than the current prediction. (+4.8%)
  • Independência - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.96
    (2.17)
    3.37
    (3.38)
    3.47
    (3.08)
    9.5%
    (8.3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    Preview Facts
    • Independência has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • GAS is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Independência may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • Recently, Independência has had a series of away games.
    • Independência could have a small edge in this match.
    • In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Independência won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 3:1).
    • Including home match between the teams, Independência won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Independência - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio were as follows:
    05.07.2025 Grêmio Atlético Sampaio - Independência 1:2
    10.05.2025 Independência - Grêmio Atlético Sampaio 4:1
    Latest results of Independência
    15.04.2026 Paysandu - Independência 2:1
    12.04.2026 Independência - Humaitá 3:0
    08.04.2026 Trem - Independência 4:0
    04.04.2026 Guaporé - Independência 0:0
    Brazilian Copa Norte Table
    Main

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Nacional-AM541014:11313
    2Paysandu PA53028:10-29
    3Guapore52124:6-27
    4Trem520311:1106
    5Independencia51224:8-45
    6GAS510410:15-53


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Aguia De Maraba541012:6613
    2Porto Velho531110:5510
    3Amazonas52129:637
    4Remo52126:607
    5Galvez51049:17-83
    6Monte Roraima50239:15-62

          Promotion ~ Copa Norte (Play Offs: Semi~finals)