Result
1:1
18/03/2023 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 25
- Referee: Ferreira V. (Por)
Chances of winning
Arouca
43.3% | Draw
29% | Paços de Ferreira
27.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arouca's form might have worsened.Paços de Ferreira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+6.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arouca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
Arouca - Paços de Ferreira Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.18 ↑
(1.91) |
3.24 ↓
(3.35) |
3.39 ↓
(3.98) |
6.2%
(7.5%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Arouca - Paços de Ferreira?
Users Predictions:
Arouca will win
(14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- Arouca has the most likely position - 5 (26.68%), project points - 50, currently - 37, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).
- Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 17 (42.12%), project points - 24, currently - 15, a good chance of relegated (84%), not chance of qualify for ucl.
- This event has quality 44, small importance 16, small match rating 30. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Arouca won 0.
- Arouca is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Recent matches Paços de Ferreira is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
- Paços de Ferreira could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
- Arouca will have a small advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Arouca: Vitinho
(Injury)
- There will not play in Paços de Ferreira: Djalo M.
(Injury)
- Last 15 head-to-head matches Arouca won 1 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 12-21.
- Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7-12.
How many head-to-head matches has Arouca won against Paços de Ferreira?
Arouca has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Paços de Ferreira won against Arouca?
Paços de Ferreira has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Arouca - Paços de Ferreira were as follows:
02.10.2022
Paços de Ferreira
-
Arouca
1:1
Latest results of Paços de Ferreira
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12:1 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15:4 | 11 | 12 |
| 3 | Moreirense | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:4 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6:2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5:2 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Braga | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:5 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:8 | -2 | 7 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4:8 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Estoril | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Santa Clara | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 5 |
| 12 | Arouca | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:13 | -6 | 5 |
| 13 | Nacional | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:8 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Alverca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5:9 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Estrela | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | AFS | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4:11 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 | Tondela | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2:10 | -8 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
